Rather than run the risk of Iraq become a theocracy or continually embittered in civil war, I think the solution is to partition Iraq into two separate nations, one a democracy and the other a theocracy.
What are the demographics? About 15 percent Kurds, 22 percent Sunnies and the remainder Shiites--with a few Christians sprinkled throughout.
The theocracy nation (Southern Iraq):
This new nation would consist of borders west of Iran; slightly north of Karbala and Al Kut; slightly east of Karbala, An Najaf and An Nasiriyah.
NOTE: The Euprhates and the Tigris would remain open waterway for both nations, administered by a joint board of oversight. Southern Iraq would access the Persian Gulf via the Shat Al Arab Strait
This new theocracy nation would absorb most of Iraq's present Shiite population, a ballpark number being somewhere around 40 percent, with the remaining percentage likely opting to live in the Northern Iraq nation, mostly in the City of Baghdad.
The US could help to improve its relations with Iran by aiding in the establishment of Southern Iraq. A tradeoff to assist both new nations would be a sharing of all of present Iraqi oil revenue, with this oil industry overseen by shared board of control.
The Democratic nation (Northern Iraq):
These borders would consist of all of present Iraq, excerpt whereas indicated above. The new democracy would become a nation better balanced in terms of ethnicity with Turks, Sunnis and Shiites (with closer population representation), thus each would compete against each other for the best ideas on how to run this newly established Democratic nation.
Prospects? Could this be accomplished? Maybe. Certainly worth a try and better than the present reality where pain and suffering is common fare.
Under the above projected scenario, democracy would at least have a chance of happening, and some of the pressures with respect to Turkey and Iran could become eliminated. Turkey would no longer fear the rise of an independent Kurdish nation, and Iran would be satisfied to share its southern border with a sister Shiite nation.
Under the present condition, with Iraq as one nation, Shiites controlling over 60 percent of Iraq's population would inevitably cause to create of a wholly theocratic, not democratic, nation. For the Middle East region this would be a move backwards, not forwards. |
