Battlegrounders
[ archives email ]
PENNSYLVANIA: UP FOR GRABS [Chris Lilik 10/24 09:15 PM]
This weekend, four new Pa. polls continue to show our state up for grabs.
The latest Allentown Morning Call and Muhlenberg College poll has Kerry narrowly leading Bush 48%-46%.
A just-released Rasmussen Reports survey has Kerry up 3% in our state by a slim 49%-46% margin.
Finally, a new Oct 19th-Oct 21st Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll conducted by Mason-Dixon shows Kerry with a meager 46%-44% lead.
"These polls are tight, and it ought to start to break one way or the other Thursday," said Pennsylvania political consultant William J. Green. "I think the President will win the reelection handily."
After talking to Green, I just got wind of yet another poll showing
Pa. tight. The new Zogby has Bush back 2% (Kerry 47%-Bush 45%).
VARIOUS: HAWAII, ARKANSAS, MICHIGAN, AND THAT KERRY STORY [David Hogberg 10/24 04:36 PM]
Holy Margins of Error, Batman! Another Hawaii poll, this one showing Bush leading Kerry, 46-45%!
That combined with the new Arkansas poll showing a dead heat, and I have no idea what is going on in this election. Right now, I’m dismissing the Arkansas News poll as a fluke since it represents a 9-point swing in only two weeks, two weeks when nothing out of the ordinary happened in the campaign. Yes, Zogby also showed a close race here, but he has a terrible record at the state level. Nevertheless, if I’m Karl Rove I’m telling my pollster to do an overnighter in the Razorback State to see if Bush volunteers and a Bush visit are necessary.
Okay, I am now open to the possibility that it might be a good idea for Bush to go to Michigan (not like my opinion matters, as he is clearly going anyway.) I base this on: (1) Kerry is worried enough that he is making a visit here; (2) That Detroit News tracking poll now shows Bush with a 5-point lead |
