Horserace blog - State Poll Update 10/24
New polls were added today in most of the key battleground states. All but a few of them came from Zogby. I have updated my spreadsheet to account for them. Here is the present state of the race according to the polls. Note (again) that this is an unweighted average. I have included the margin of error for each, as well as the probability that Bush holds a lead in the state. Also note that I again do not maintain that this is a perfect picture of the race. Polls have different methodologies that make their reconciliation difficult. Nevertheless, I think this is the single best way to make sense of all these polls.
Ohio
Bush: 47.3%
Kerry: 46.1%
MOE: +/- 1.4%
(Based upon 7 Polls; 4,679 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 87.08%
Florida
Bush: 47.9%
Kerry: 45.8%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,634 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 97.19%
Iowa
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.2%
MOE: +/- 2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 2,026 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 96.49%
Wisconsin
Bush: 47.6%
Kerry: 45.6%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,126 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.95%
New Mexico
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.3%
MOE: +/- 2.2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 1,825 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.74%
Minnesota
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 46.9%
MOE: +/- 1.8%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,835 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 18.41%
Michigan
Bush: 44.9%
Kerry: 47.4$
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,236 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 2.17%
Nevada
Bush: 48.1%
Kerry: 43.2%
MOE: +/- 1.3%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,351 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.88%
Colorado
Bush: 48.3%
Kerry: 44.7%
MOE: +/- 1.9%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,496 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.45%
Pennsylvania
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 47.7%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,654 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 3.75%
As you can see, the likelihood of a Bush lead has increased in WI, IA, OH, FL, NV, NM. Zogby had a poll showing Kerry in the lead in CO, but the small sample size and the fact that the other three polls were decisively in the other direction changed the overall conclusion that Bush has a lead outside the margin of error there. Kerry's only consolation in today's polls is that it has become more likely that he is leading in PA, MN and MI. However, these are not the states with which he is presently concerned. Generally, this reduces the likelihood of Kerry's best shot at winning the Electoral College if the election were held today from 1.9% to .03%. Bush's best shot at present remains winning FL, IA and WI. If the election were held today, he would be 89.04% likely to do this.
jaycost.blogspot.com |
