Strategy Page - IRAN: Playing With Revolution
October 25, 2004: The deadlock between the Islamic conservative minority (about 20 percent of the population) and the reform minded majority, continues. The Islamic conservatives are willing to use deadly force to keep power, and the majority is not yet willing to confront that force. But the way these things work, a bloody incident will eventually happen. Pictures of Islamic hardliners killing moderates will be taken, get sent to a foreign Iranian satellite television station, and the inflammatory images will be seen throughout the country. More and more of the meek majority will take up arms, and the Islamic hard liners will be forced to back down. This has happened many times before In Iranian history. What's different now is that there is no Iranian feudal aristocracy that, in the past, could more quickly mobilize sufficient force to get the religious leadership to retreat back into their mosques.
October 24, 2004: Iran's uranium processing facilities are said to be 70 percent complete. The government refuses European demands that Iran stop its nuclear weapons building activities. Building nuclear weapons is very popular in Iran, and the government is making the most of it. Israel has said it will attack Iran's nuclear weapons facilities if Iran gets too close to having nuclear weapons. The Islamic conservatives welcome this, as it will further entrench the Islamic conservatives, and make a missile attack on Israel more popular with most Iranians. The Islamic conservative minority needs a war to keep them in power. |
