October 24, 2004--Nine days to go and the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 207. There are now nine states with 109 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
Today's change results from moving Michigan from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Kerry." Check out our state-by-state table and share your comments.
The nine Toss-Up states are Florida (27 Electoral Votes) Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), and Wisconsin (10).
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States in the Bush column include Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana, (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
States in the Kerry column include California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland, (10), Michigan (17), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey(15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (11).
TOSS-UP STATES
Florida (27 Electoral Votes): The most notorious Toss-Up of Election 2000 is unbelievably close as Election 2004 draws to a close. In mid-month, Bush had the advantage in Florida, but his lead has disappeared in our daily Florida Tracking Poll.
Iowa (7): Al Gore barely won this state four years ago. Iowa was leaning towards Kerry for most of 2004 until the Republican National Convention. Since then, with just one exception, Bush has been clinging to a very modest lead in his effort to convert this "Blue State" to the Red column.
Minnesota (10): Another formerly Blue State that is clearly in play for Election 2004. The state has been trending more Republican in recent Presidential Elections. Symbolic of the trend, Republican Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale in the state's 2002 U.S. Senate match.
Nevada (5): This was a state the President expected to have wrapped up by now but polls continually show Senator Kerry within striking distance. We will be conducting our final 2004 Nevada poll on Tuesday night.
New Hampshire (4): The President is slightly behind in New Hampshire, perhaps due to the fact that John Kerry is from next door Massachusetts. Bush has gained ground in recent weeks, but New Hampshire remains the only "Red State" with Kerry in the lead
New Mexico (5): Too close to call four years ago and no different today. We will be polling in New Mexico later this week.
Ohio (20): The election may be decided in Ohio. That's why we've already seen plenty of legal wrangling about who can vote and where. Republicans have registered far more precinct workers than Democrats to challenge those they believe are not eligible to vote.
Pennsylvania (21): Throughout 2004, the Keystone State has wavered between Toss-Up status and Leans Kerry. It is far more likely to end up in the Kerry column rather than voting for Bush. However, the Democrats haven't quite been able to close the sale yet and the President keeps visiting the state.
Wisconsin (10): Along with Iowa and Minnesota, this is one of three mid-Western states that the President lost four years ago but hopes to capture this time around.
Check out our state-by-state table and share your comments.
Rasmussen Reports provides a daily Presidential Tracking Poll, updated each day by noon Eastern.
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