Urlman; Java will have life in embedded apps for ever. That was it's original use. However I suspect it will not achieve much more than it has already in Windows, little bits and pieces, moving animals etc. I doubt that a competing OS(by competing I mean good enough to get 15% of the market, the existence of a pimple does not count) based on Java will ever appear that is transparent in the sense that all the programs now out there could be made instantly available as Java programs by some universal recompilation program.
The idea catches peoples imagination, as they see Microsoft #2(Java) and think that it will soon be universal. The legacy apps will drown this approach. You in effect have a market lock that is permanent by Microsoft. He provides the road, and as long as it is priced reasonably, we will all drive on it, as it goes every where. Of course some like the less travelled roads, and trail bike them, but that is not for the mainstream user who just wants an appliance type of operability with no aggravations. In fact Intel is now discovering that Microsoft owns the road. Let them try to sell a new CPU that will not run windows, good luck, and anyone who sells a cpu that runs windows can also ride the road. Let Intel try to put an extra toll on the road(funny chip/cpu carrier) and see how many people drive others cpus down the road.
Apple had the chance to have a competing road, but the tolls were too high, and after a while there was no traffic. Apple killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. Java can never provide such a road unless literally billions are devoted to a new OS and to getting apps from all the mainstream software providers. As we speak providers are shutting down Java development work(some quietly, and some not(Corel))
Gates made the right move. He made his OSs available for a very cheap price. Often under 1/4% of the system cost. Try that with IBM software. As a result he sold millions, and made a few nibbles on each one, and now has a money filled swimmin pool(like Scrooge McDuck) that he swims in every day(NOT, I have it on solid ground that he does not swim there, but the pool attracts many young hopefull dollies, and he enjoys watching them frisk there)
But Java will be very common in embedded apps, but it will compete with the many others out there, and these will not impinge on our day to day lives. What do I care or know what is on my credit card?
Bill |
