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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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From: Seeker of Truth10/26/2004 3:27:10 AM
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The post from HongKong reports that China buys mostly the cheaper high sulfur oil, which has only risen by 39% in the last year. It is the low sulfur oil that has risen more. I don't contest those statements. The report goes on to say that the rise in the oil price is due to panic buying by US refineries who buy the "sweeter" oil. Well really, nobody wants to buy the sour oil. But poor people can't always choose. China is still poor, etc. There is an additional cost from the higher pollution. One must either spend more money on cleaning the oil or else put up with the health problems caused by the dirty oil. Since pollution in China is slowly decreasing, not increasing any more, I infer that China is gradually cleaning up the oil and coal burning processes. There's a cost there. The US refineries are not so insane as the article implies. So when will oil prices turn down massively? I suppose it will be when Saddam number 2 gets into power. Iraq has enormous reserves of oil at present not even worked enough to provide for the needs of the 17 million Iraqis. Saddam II may be a shia this time rather than a sunni. But he will kill all his enemies and their relatives, in the same fashion. Order will be restored. He will kill many people annually. He will make deals with Russian, French, German, maybe Canadian and Chinese companies to get the oil out of the ground in large quantities. For a few years the world oil price will be contained. Iraq is the last remaining presently unexploited huge source of oil on the planet.
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