Bush's lead narrows in final week
By Bill Nichols and Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry by 51% to 46% among likely voters with just a week to go before the election, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows.
Bush's lead has narrowed — from 52% to 44% — from a poll taken a week ago. Independent candidate Ralph Nader has 1%. (Related: Poll results)
Among the larger pool of registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 47%, down from 49% to 46% a week ago. Bush's advantage in both groups is within the poll's margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
A separate survey in the crucial battleground state of Florida carries good news for Republican faithful. In a poll taken Thursday through Sunday, Bush leads Kerry 51% to 43% among likely voters — essentially mirroring the 52% to 43% lead Bush had a month ago.
Among registered voters, Bush leads 51% to 42%, an increase from his 49% to 44% lead a month ago.
In other battleground states, however, Kerry is showing strength, fueling speculation about an unprecedented outcome to the election: Bush, who moved into the White House after losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College, could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College this year.
While Bush leads Kerry among likely voters nationally in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll, the two candidates are tied, 49%-49%, among likely voters in the 12 battleground states that are expected to determine the electoral vote winner.
In Gallup and other public surveys in recent weeks, Kerry has shown more strength in battleground states — where the candidates' schedules and TV ads are concentrated — than he has nationwide. That reflects Bush's overwhelming margins in safely Republican states across the South, in the Mountain West and in his home state of Texas.
All but two states — Maine and Nebraska — allocate their electoral votes as winner-take-all. That means a landslide for Bush in a Republican-leaning state doesn't benefit him any more than a modest Kerry victory in a Democratic-leaning state.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, dismisses the idea of another divided outcome. "When we win the popular vote by 3 or 4 points, we'll carry the battlegrounds," he says.
Kerry pollster Mark Mellman contends, however, that an array of recent polls share two common characteristics: "One is that the race is tight nationally and the second is that John Kerry is doing better in the battleground states than in the national number."
National poll highlights:
• Several indicators of a highly energized and polarized electorate. Nine percent of those polled said they had already voted and 13% said they would vote before Election Day. Of those who have voted or will vote early, 51% support Bush and 49% support Kerry.
Asked whether the stakes in this election are higher than in past years, 90% of registered voters agreed, compared with 67% in 1996. Also, 76% said they were afraid of what would happen if the candidate they were supporting did not win, as opposed to 59% in 1996.
• Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — stayed steady at 51%. GOP strategists worry most about slipping under 50%, a red flag for incumbents.
• A rising unfavorable rating for Teresa Heinz Kerry, who apologized last week after saying to USA TODAY about first lady Laura Bush: "I don't know that she's ever had a real job." Bush has been a teacher, a librarian and a homemaker. The poll found 40% have an unfavorable view of Heinz Kerry and 38% favorable. A poll Oct.1-3 found 40% favorable, 34% unfavorable.
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