REALLY SMART STUFF FROM GERRY DALY AND JOHN PODHORETZ [10/26 08:44 AM]
KERRY SPOT
For a while now, I've wondered if the much-discussed undecided voter was kind of like Bigfoot. It's so hard to see one in person, that you wonder if they really exist at all, or whether it's worth all the attention.
Well, John Podhoretz is having similar thoughts, and using some numbers from Gerry Daly, he takes a hard whack at some conventional wisdom.
For years, political professionals have told us that undecided voters "break for the challenger."
This bit of wisdom is based on a long-term trend in the Gallup poll. Since 1936, undecided voters in the last poll taken before a presidential election do seem to opt for the challenger in greater numbers.
But, as dalythoughts.com's Gerry Daly points out, the result changes significantly if you use the second-to-last Gallup as your reference point.
Only twice since 1936 have undecideds in the second-to-last Gallup poll broken for the challenger. And it was only significant once, in 1980, when the undecided swing to Ronald Reagan helped him win a landslide against incumbent Jimmy Carter.
In the other 10 presidential elections featuring incumbents in the past 68 years, the voters from the second-to-last Gallup either broke for the incumbent or broke evenly.
And let's be clear what "break" means. It's not that 100 percent of undecideds go one way — it means that 60 to 65 percent do. Using yesterday's Gallup poll as a benchmark, Kerry would need an even greater break than that to catch up to Bush — 70 to 75 percent of the undecided voters at least.
That huge margin for Kerry just doesn't seem likely right now. |
