Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry Message Board

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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (54550)	10/26/2004 12:31:52 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) of 81568

The disreputable pollers (Gallup, Newsweek) are using ludicrous dem/repub percentages in their polls. The reputable polsters (Zogby, Rasmussen) are using dem/repub percentages that mirror the last three elections. In all probability those percentages are not valid for this election, as there will be considerably higher number of dems voting. However, the reputable pollster cannot "assume" massive turnout in computing his results, he has to go based on past history. Thus, it is literally impossible for the reputable polls to factor in the results of the dem GOTV campaign. The reputable polls can give you a sense of the respective campaigns' momentum. The disreputable ones should be disregarded entirely.

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