Poll gives Kerry highest lead over Bush among Arab-Americans
Constituency in battleground states turning more Democratic
By Will Rasmussen
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
BEIRUT: John Kerry rose to his highest lead among Arab-American voters, who now favor the Massachusetts senator by a 2-1 margin over President George W. Bush, according to a Zogby poll released Tuesday.
The poll, conducted in the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida predicts that Kerry will win about 60 percent of the Arab-American vote, with Bush receiving 33 percent and Ralph Nader garnering only 7 percent.
"Bush they know, and they've rejected," Dr. James J. Zogby told The Daily Star in a telephone interview. "Kerry they don't know, but there's a different option than what they have."
"People are ready for a change," he said.
Support for Nader fell between September to October 2004 after the Lebanese-American independent candidate was removed from ballots in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Eighteen percent of Arab-Americans, the poll found, continue to support Nader or are undecided.
Zogby told The Daily Star that Nader "has been great on all the issues" Arab-Americans traditionally care most about, but in an increasingly partisan and divisive election there is little room for a third party candidate.
Zogby said that Bush's handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Iraq war, and civil liberties turned many Arab-Americans against the current administration.
Domestic issues, however, still topped the list of priorities for Arab-American voters, with most of those polled listing the economy as their most important criteria for choosing a president. Terrorism and national security was ranked second.
Iraq, which since the last poll in September has moved past health care to third on the list, is a growing concern for Arab American voters.
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Kerry is favored over Bush by a 38 to 25 percent margin, with 27 percent of Arab- Americans reporting that they favor neither candidate to handle the issue.
Support for President Bush grew among Arab-Americans between February and September but dropped slightly in the October poll. Twenty-eight percent of those surveyed in February said Bush should be re-elected compared with 31.5 percent in September and 30.5 percent in October.
Bush's support is weakest among Arab-American Muslims (13 percent say he should be re-elected) and highest among Roman Catholics (41 percent believe he should be re-elected).
Kerry's most pronounced gains since a September Zogby poll are among Arab-American immigrants (from 48 percent support in September to 63 percent now), Arab-American Muslims (form 65 percent to 72 percent), and Arab-American Orthodox Christians (from 33 percent to 42 percent).
Kerry's support among Arab-American Republicans jumped from 8 percent to 22 percent, offsetting gains Bush made since the Republican convention. Bush's support among Arab American Republicans has returned to its pre-convention level.
The four states covered by the survey - Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - all rank among the top ten in Arab American population, including in total more than 1.1 million citizens. |
