Gallup Takes A Dump On Florida
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by Chris Bowers
mydd.com
Good thing for the Gallup poll. Otherwise, people might have been surprised if Bush won Florida:
ARG: Kerry 49, Bush 46 (10/25)
Insider Advantage: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (10/24)
Miami Herald: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (10/21)
Rasmussen: Kerry 48, Bush 48 (10/24)
Research 2000: Kerry 48, Bush 47 (10/21)
Survey USA: Kerry 50, Bush 48 (10/24)
Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (10/24)
Seven polls over the last four days showing Kerry positioned for a victory in Florida, a state where Bush was unable to pass 48, was shut out of major newspaper endorsements, is getting beat on television advertising, and where Democrats are crushing Republicans in GOTV (previous post on the subject). Now, of course, we have Gallup showing Bush ahead in Florida 51 to 43, a complete conflict with all other polling of the state. Take a wild guess as to why they polled so differently from the other seven surveys:
Likely Voter Sample
TOTAL: 768
Rep: 341 (44%)
Dem: 273 (36%)
Ind: 146 (19%)
Registered Voter Sample
TOTAL: 909
Rep: 387 (43%)
Dem: 321 (35%)
Ind: 187 (21%)
In 2000, the electorate in Florida was 40% Democrat, 38% Republican, and 22% Independent. Gallup swung a +2% advantage for Democrats to a +8% advantage for Republicans, for an overall 10% pro-Republican swing. Gallup is doing everything it can to help quell national outrage in the event that through voter intimidation and faulty felon lists Jeb successfully steals Florida for his brother again. |
