From Atimes --Paying China for pressuring Pyongyang
By Ehsan Ahrari
...
What should China make of this public good-cop-bad-cop show? It appears that Beijing will stay engaged in the six-nation dialogue solely as a continuation of a ritual leading up to the US presidential election next Tuesday. China also knows that it can put ample pressure on North Korea, but not without significant payoffs from the US for China itself. Such a payoff must come in several ways:
First, a clear enunciation of US-China relations must be made in the first part of next year in Washington. Even if Bush is re-elected, the United States must make discernable concessions regarding the Taiwan reunification conflict.
Second, the United States must also back off from selling sophisticated weapons platforms to Taiwan, an issue that has consistently annoyed leaders in Beijing. The most complicating aspect of these two expectations is that the US Congress is very much involved, and may not budge when it comes to abandoning a democratic ally, Taiwan.
Third, from the Chinese point of view, Washington and China must arrive at some new understanding in negotiations over weapons sales to People's Republic of China. Here again,the role of the US Congress remains vital.
Fourth, if George W Bush is re-elected, then China must see the framework of his administration's engagement in East Asia early next year in order to determine whether it adopts a strident posture or a friendly one toward China. On this issue, the White House has considerable leeway, especially if the neo-conservatives were to be consistently sidelined in the White House in a second Bush administration. The likelihood of such an occurrence - sidelining the neo-cons - appears terribly remote.
If Senator John F Kerry wins the White House, China knows that it must get serious about putting pressure on Kim Jong-il to unravel its nuclear-weapons program. However, a president Kerry must also assure North Korea first that he will not continue to take the United States down the road to hostility toward the Kim Jong-il regime.
Conclusions
These pressure and counter-pressure games involving the United States, China and North Korea will become quite intriguing if Kerry is elected. The start of a new game is almost always more interesting than the continuation of an old one, where the participants' moves are pretty much anticipated. China will let the US play the "China card" as long Beijing gets fulfilled some of the cherished goals of its own strategic affairs, especially concerning Taiwan. Kerry, with no previous ideological baggage from the White House, might be more prone to deal with China and North Korea on the basis of pragmatism and national interests than Bush, whose ideological preoccupation has been seen as a major obstacle for the past four years by friends and foes alike.
Ehsan Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst in Alexandria, Virginia.
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