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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (20776)10/27/2004 10:34:59 AM
From: re3  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 10:07
trotsky (too many bulls....) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the gold train is getting too crowded...Rydex cumulative pm fund money flows are nearly back at their March highs, and this is worrisome, especially as the gold sector indices are NOT back at their highs ( i.e. there's a bearish divergence in force now ) .
so we're likely going to get whacked a bit soon.
a sharp but swift pullback that eliminates the weak hand hopefuls would be best...it would help to ensure that a subsequent move higher has a more solid foundation.
if otoh we just keep going higher from here, the move would imo be of questionable quality and unlikely to be durable. the election would then probably turn into a 'sell the news' event.
the other side of this coin is the almost universal dollar bearishness just as the dollar index approaches major support zones.
i'm not going totally pessimistic on you here, just a bit more cautious.
big trader pm stock money flows have looked reasonably good thus far, although there has been a little bit of deterioration over the past week or so.
also, it seems to me there's still event risk being priced in, which will certainly come out of prices post election - except in the highly unlikely case of an 'event' actually happening.
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