BATTLEGROUNDERS - OHIO: NOT A SWING STATE [Peter W. Schramm 10/27 10:43 AM]
This is a brief response and note to Kathryn's bringing to our attention Jay Costs points (below). I also think that Bush is doing much better in Ohio than the MSM gives him credit for; the MSM are spinning. And this explains why Bush was able to stay away from the state for ten days; he has a chance to take Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, and still hold Ohio. Rove isn't an idiot and they haven't given up on Ohio. Jay mentions many good reasons for thinking this and he is essentially correct. I want to emphasize a few things, only some of which he mentions. First, as he mentions, Ohio is very much of a GOP state, it is not a swing state; the Democratic party is hardly to be found; and there is no interesting state-wide Demo candidate running for any position that in any way will help Kerry; Voinovich will be re-elected with about 63% of the vote. Second, the social-moral issues (gay marriage, abortion) and security concerns have a huge impact in Ohio, especially among women and African-Americans. This is even reflected in nation-wide polls. Kerry cannot break even with Bush with female voters; he needs to get at least 10% more of them than Bush and Bush will pick up about 13% of the black vote. Third, only fools will think that the roughly 800,000 newly registered voters are all going for Kerry; they will end up breaking about 50-50; pay attention to the large number of voters the GOP has registered, these guys have not been napping for the last five months; there are new voters in rural counties too, they're not all up in Cuyahoga County. Fourth, Bush will get a much larger percentage of Independents than some folks think. Fifth, there is no enthusiasm for Kerry, even among his supporters. Nobody likes this guy, and his wife seems to justify the worst tendencies of the French Revolution; it is impossible for people to envision her in the White House as first lady. I will predict that Bush will win the state by one or two points less than "Issue 1" (no gay marriage) will pass with: "Issue 1" will pass by about 6%, and Bush will take Ohio by 4 or 5 percent. It is my considered opinion that the Democrats and the Kerry campaign are extremely desperate in Ohio. And I understand why.
OHIO: COURT WON'T PUT NADER ON BALLOT [Chris Lilik 10/27 10:36 AM]
PENNSYLVANIA: MERCER COUNTY UPDATE [Chris Lilik 10/27 10:34 AM]
From Jeff Stark, editor of starktruth.com:
In 2000 the Republican Party failed to deliver Mercer County (NWPA) to George Bush by a mere 786 votes. Being outnumbered by the Democrats by more than 6000 registered voters for the past few years, the Republicans have closed the gap to just over 5000. But registered voters are not the focal point for this northwestern rural county's Republican Party. In a county made up of mostly farmland and conservative Republicans, the Shenango Valley offers the only true bastion for liberalism.
The Bush-Cheney headquarters in Mercer County has distributed more than 1800 yard signs, 3500 posters, and endless supplies of bumper stickers. But with mass distribution comes mass vandalism. Many Bush-Cheney supporters have been reporting theft and destruction of yard signs, cars, and bumper stickers. The campaign itself has purchased five 4 foot by 8 foot signs, 2 of which have been destroyed. Campaign headquarters provides more than 100 visitors each day with literature and materials while fielding around 80 phone calls asking for information or offering to volunteer.
The feeling in Mercer County is that of a tight race. Unwilling to either concede defeat or take the election for granted, the party is fighting hard to motivate the largely rural county. The consistent theme of Bush supporters in the county was surprisingly not terrorism or national defense. Mercer County Bush supporters are looking at morals, character and integrity as their primary reasons for choosing Bush over Kerry. With "Democrats for Bush" being the hardest bumper sticker to keep in stock, hopes are high they will deliver this year.
PENNSYLVANIA: BUSH CROWD GETS TO MOORE [Chris Lilik 10/27 10:33 AM]
From Indiana County Young Conservatives of Pennsylvania Vice Chair Courtney Adams:
On Tuesday, October 26, over 500 supporters of President Bush gathered outside the Indiana University of Pennsylvania Field House to protest an appearance by Michael Moore. Moore, who was paid for by IUP student activities fees, was visiting IUP as part of his national "Slackers Uprising Tour".
Rhonda Goodrich, Courtney Adams, the IUP College Republicans, and the Indiana County Young Conservatives organized the event, and were extremely pleased with the turnout. The counter protest to Michael Moore was so effective that even Moore himself had to mention the crowd outside. "I have never seen anything like this," Moore told the audience at IUP.
PENNSYLVANIA: NEW KEYSTONE NUMBERS [Chris Lilik 10/27 10:31 AM]
Two new polls are out this morning, both showing Kerry up in Pa. The big question is by how much?
The new Survey USA has Kerry up by a whopping 8 points, (53%-45%) and Specter leading Hoeffel and Clymer 51%-38%-6%.
Yet another Zogby poll was also released , this one done in conjunction with Reuters. Like the previous Zogby, Kerry leads by 3, this time 49%-46%.
While Survey USA polls are often criticized by pollsters and pundits as being untrustworthy, they were pretty darn accurate during the Toomey campaign. For example, a Survey USA done right before the Toomey/Specter primary showed the race tied 48%-48%, projecting what turned out to be a photo-finish. But then again, just days ago three polls showed Pa. to be a 2% race.
"Forget all these polls. This county has gone poll crazy. My advice is to take them all, average them, and the answer has a fifty-fifty chance of being right or wrong. There is no fail-safe way to poll an expanding electorate where the intensity of interest shifts day to day," said KDKA-TV Politics Editor Jon Delano. "Polls are snapshots of days gone by, not predictors of what's going to happen on Election Day."
While Delano's gut on Pennsylvania is that Kerry is in the lead, he also notes it is likely to rain next Tuesday, which some might say is good news for Republicans. Delano stresses turnout is what will decide Pennsylvania, not poll numbers. |
