Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 13:05
trotsky (frustrated@GDP) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i'm not even going to guess...it will be what they want it to be, and it's a meaningless number anyway ( i realize of course that the number could provoke short term market moves ) .
one thing: they do calculate the trade deficit as a drag on GDP, so it would be reasonable in light of that and the other data we have seen to expect a relatively weak rather than a strong number - but reasonable expectations may not be relevant in this case...it's after all the most diffuse and prone to distortion number of all the government serves up.
that's why i'm saying it'll be whatever they want it to be...let's not forget , they'll revise it at least TWICE, long after anyone cares.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 12:05
trotsky (frustrated@dollar) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
just thought i'd use the occasion to bring to attention the fact that a lot of specs are leaning the same way in the dollar right now.
it doesn't HAVE to be meaningful, since the currency futures are only a very small slice of the total market, but historical charts indicate that there IS a connection between the size of the speculative exposure and short to medium term turning points.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 12:00
trotsky (Wiffo,11:13) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's of course up to you which criteria you employ for stock selection, but i don't think the 'contempt' charge has any merit. 99% of financings are done at a discount to market price - it's either that, or you don't get a financing. there has to be something in it for the people putting up the money.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 11:50
trotsky (Mooney@USD) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
short covering. there have been pretty large speculative net short positions outstanding in the dollar ( or rather, net long positions in the other major currencies ) . i actually thought it would happen sooner.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 11:41
trotsky (Roan, 10:58) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i'm not so sure this is a good sign. i agree that we don't want to see too heavy speculation in the juniors, but what you have described to me is an advance that has NARROWED, i.e. is borne by a smaller number of participating stocks.
whenever that happens in the broader market ( i.e. the indices rise, but on the back of fewer issues than before ) , it is generally considered to be a negative development.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 11:33
trotsky (eyes2sky, 10:34) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
as i have pointed out in the past, it's usually a mistake to use anecdotal sentiment distilled from kitco posts as an indicator.
true, it's better when some skepticism is expressed here than when everybody's gung-ho.
but i still prefer watching data that say something about the positioning of a broader swathe of market participants, especially the data that record what they DO, as opposed to what they SAY.
and in this context, the Rydex fund money flows have always proven to be a reliable indicator, and they're flashing a warning signal right now.
note also that i'm not overly pessimistic, at least not yet. merely getting cautious about the very short term prospects.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 11:11
trotsky (a case of mass cognitive dissonance...) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
a bit shocking, but not really surprising...
pipa.org
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 11:03
trotsky (Wiffo, 9:35) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i note the share price has hardly budged after the announcement of the offering. Kupol isn't going to build itself - it requires money to do it.
i very much doubt that once it's producing 750,000 oz. p.a. at $40 oz. anyone will still worry about this bit of dilution.
in fact, BGO has been one of the best performing gold stocks in spite of raising its share capital by over 200% since '01 - and for good reason.
Date: Wed Oct 27 2004 10:46
trotsky (Elliott@libertarian sell-outs) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i think Mr. Rockwell has best characterized the intellectual dishonesty of sell-outs like Hospens and their ilk.
"In the weeks before the election, with the usual partisan hysteria becoming ever more intense, public intellectuals are ripping off the mask of principle to come out in favor of one or the other candidate. Typically, many libertarians are throwing their support behind Bush, and on the usual grounds that he is better than a hypothetical alternative.
It's a strange argument. First, there is always a worse hypothetical alternative to even the worst hell on earth. Even in a solitary, dark, 5'x5' prison cell there is something worse: the wardens could stop delivery of porridge once a day. But that is no argument for believing in the system, or ceasing to try to find a way out of it. To love one's captors and appreciate their favors is a psychosis, but one that gains a mass following in the weeks before a presidential election.
Second, there is something gravely perverse about libertarians who arrive to convince us that the present calamity caused by the existing regime isn't so bad after all; indeed we should support it in order to forestall a worse fate. The only result of such a position is to diminish one's own intellectual credibility. One thinks of all the great philosophers, scientists, and artists who have thrown their support behind a terrible despot. They had a million reasons for doing so. But it always ends up diminishing them. "
enjoy:
lewrockwell.com
|
