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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: michael97123 who wrote (149362)10/27/2004 2:37:23 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Of course we don't know. But here are my thoughts FWIW:

1.- The Iraq war is defining for both sides of the Jihadi battle. If we succeed, they are broken. If we don't, they are inflated again much like their spirits were lifted by the withdrawal by the Soviets from Afghanistan.

2.- The election of Kerry would be seen as a net positive for the Jihadists since I firmly believe that he will be perceived as more malleable than Bush, who is seen as implacable, if flawed.

3.- It makes no sense for the Jihadists to engage Bush in a more pitched battle at this time since it is essentially a waste of the resources they will need if he is reelected.

4.- If Kerry is elected, they will crank up terrorism in order to immediately push him into a withdrawal or concessions. Because he is seen as more malleable, less resolute, they probably calculate that such a tactic would yield immediate, "cheap," and positive results.
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