Battlegrounders
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NEW HAMPSHIRE: LEARNING ABOUT VOTER ELIGIBILITY [Chip Griffin 10/27 12:18 PM]
The issue of where college students should vote has cropped up in NH again this cycle, but with much more coverage than in previous years. In part, the additional coverage results from a clarification put into law by the state legislature that The Washington Post says “requires people whose identification indicates they are from out-of-state to sign an affidavit that shifts their "domicile" to New Hampshire before they can register to vote.” This issue frequently crops up during the NH Primary when students at UNH, Dartmouth and other schools are often recruited to change their registration to NH to give a certain candidate an edge. With the tightness of the current race, those tactics have now shifted to the general election. As in other states, some students claim to the media that compliance with the law is being used as an intimidation tactic – perhaps their poli sci profs can educate them differently on the need to play by the rules.
ARKANSAS: GOOD NEWS FOR BUSH? [Kane Webb 10/27 11:57 AM]
A closer look at the recently released UA poll I mentioned (GWB 47, jfk 40) exposes some interesting trends in Arkansas, which has been trailing the South in its move toward the GOP. The percentage of folks who identify themselves as Republicans in Arkansas has gone from 23 percent in 1999 to 30 percent this year. On the flip side, those who identify themselves as Democrats has stayed steady at 35 percent. . . That's a 7-percent pickup for the GOP in just five years. Why? I think it's because Arkansas has a popular Republican governor in Mike Huckabee who's given the state a much-needed new roads program and tried to institute some major, even-more-needed reforms in education. Plus, he's not so far to the right that he scares off the conservative Democrats — or what's left of them in this state. . . .
ARKANSAS: POLL-TAXED [Kane Webb 10/27 11:51 AM]
I'm starting to suffer from poll fatigue. The latest poll in Arkansas has W. up 47-40, with 3 percent for Ralph Nader and 10 percent undecided. This after a poll released Sunday showed the race a deadheat in a state that was considered solidly red and went to GWB in 2000. My gut says the new poll (organized by poli sci profs at the University of Arkansas and historically reliable) is closest to reality. A couple of qualifiers, though: The poll surveyed both registered and unregistered voters and was conducted over two weeks (Oct. 5-20). So what's it all mean? Got me. . . .
But I haven't seen any candidates traipsing through this "battleground state" of late, and from what I hear the Bushies aren't worried about Arkansas.
FLORIDA: ABSENT ABSENTEE BALLOTS [Cris Rapp 10/27 11:49 AM]
The Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel reports that some 60,000 Broward County voters who requested absentee ballots still have not received them. Broward elections officials blame the Post Office. The Post Office says they’ve delivered all the ballots the election officials gave to them. Liberals tempted to chalk this up to some sort of GOP conspiracy to disenfranchise voters should be reminded (again) that Broward’s election supervisor, both now and in 2000, is a Democrat. (Just as in Palm Beach and Dade counties, I might add).
MICHIGAN: STILL IN PLAY [Henry Payne 10/27 11:48 AM]
This morning's Detroit News poll confirms last week's pro-Bush polling trend - Michigan is back in play.
Until late Thursday, Michigan had been written off by The New York Times and many election experts as Kerry country. Then came two tracking polls conducted by News' pollster Steve Mitchell which put Bush ahead by five and three points after Kerry had consistently led by at least seven points all summer.
Today's results put the race at a virtual dead heat, with Kerry polling 45 percent and Bush 44 among 600 likely voters. Says Mitchell: "At this point, Michigan still looks like a very competitive state." In conservative West Michigan, which the Bush campaign has blanketed with ad buys to shore up perceived soft support, Bush polled strongly at 47-38. To counter Metro Detroit's heavily union and black demographic, Bush will need big numbers on the state's west side to win the state.
The poll results have jolted a complacent Kerry, who last visited the state on September 15 and had no plans to return. He was back in Michigan Sunday for a rally in swing Macomb County and has scheduled another visit this weekend. |
