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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: carranza2 who wrote (149365)	10/27/2004 3:33:39 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) of 281500

3.- It makes no sense for the Jihadists to engage Bush in a more pitched battle at this time since it is essentially a waste of the resources they will need if he is reelected. Regardless of who wins, there will be no quick exit from Iraq so the logic you are using doesn't hold up. If I were a master terrorist I would be planning a big hit while the US is in Iraq, regardless of leader. But it would not be in Iraq, it would be in other areas of US interest including the US itself. Following Bin Laden's pattern, such an attack would involve multiple, simultaneous attacks. A slight psychological twist to this would be to attack only interests directly associated with the US and not those of any other "coalition" partner, to stress the isolation of the USA and to eliminate potential tie-back to Iraq (read on). A further twist would be to ensure that the attack appears to have been launched from Canada or Mexico or ideally both, in order to further cement fears that the borders must be closed, and to get the side benefit of massive economic distruption throughout all of North America. An argument can be made that a terrorist attack in the USA if Bush is returned to power is in fact far more likely since terrorists know - they know with certainty - that the US population and media will immediately seize upon another horrific attack as proof positive that Bush has been taking his eye off the terrorist ball, distracted by Iraq. It doesn't matter whether this is true, or not, it matters only that this will be the unshakable perception.

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