Battlegrounders
MICHIGAN: PART II [David Hogberg 10/27 05:28 PM]
These next emails examined some numbers and how the Michigan ballot is a different this time around:
Shouldn't Kerry have a comfortable lead? This is a state that according to a recent GR Press article incurred 26% of the national job losses. This is a state that Gore took by almost 5. This is a state where the economy is lagging behind. Kerry has chosen the home of the Reagan Democrats, Macomb County, to appear this week. The latest Detroit News poll has Kerry trailing by (44.1-42.4) in Macomb and St. Clair Counties (Gore won 50-48 in these two counties). In Oakland County the Detroit News poll has Bush leading 47.6-45.1, Gore took the County 50-48. All just to say that Kerry hasn't sealed any deals here.
Bush voters are more likely to vote. 46.6% say they are definitely voting, compared to 42.7 of Kerry's voters and 7.8 of undecideds. 44.4% of Bush supporters say they will probably vote, compared to 33.3% of Kerry's and 22.2% of the undecideds. 51.4% Bush supporters have already voted, 41.7% of Kerry's have.
Here’s a somewhat less optimistic one:
GW can win Michigan only one way — he has to win suburban Oakland county. Forget Macomb; 800,000 residents vs. Oakland's 1.2 million. Write off Detroit but hope and pray for low turnout.
Watch the rally on Wednesday. K-Lo says it might be moved to the Silverdome (right in the heart of Oakland county). If GW has attendance similar to what was seen this weekend in Florida, then he's looking real good in Oakland.
Why Bush might have a chance in Oakland:
- Jewish vote is going his way (fair number of Jews in southern Oakland)
- Nationally, the women are moving his direction. Oakland's got plenty of white collar professional men (typically engineers for the Big 3). They'll vote Bush. In the past, Bush was losing the wives of these sorts of men.
- LOTS and LOTS of radio ads in Michigan by the GOP stating that Kerry voted to modify CAFE standards. These ads appear to be working.
Then, there are the emails on the state ballot initiatives:
There are two very hot state issues on the Michigan ballot, about gay marriage and gambling. Both of those issues are likely to energize the portion of the electorate that trends Bush — the conservatives, the religious, the family-oriented (because the gambling proposal is being attacked as hurting education funding).
And,
There is the gay marriage ballot proposal that has energized the forces of light. Last time there was a school proposal that turned every public school teacher into an activist.
I’d completely forgotten about the school-voucher initiative that was on the ballot in 2000. I think it is safe to say that energized the teachers’ union members who surely vote overwhelmingly Democratic. This time the ballot initiatives clearly energize social conservatives, and that favors Bush.
That may be more than enough to counteract a potentially poor showing among Arab-Americans.
It is worth noting that two days ago, John Zogby showed Bush down 10 points in Michigan. Today he shows him down five. Like I said earlier, I don’t have much faith in Zogby on the state level, so this could just be the result of bad methodology. Or it could mean movement in Bush’s direction. I’ll hope the latter, but…
Finally, if Bush can pick up Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, but loses New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida, he still ends up with 271 electoral votes (assuming he wins every other state he won last time.)
Thus, I am now convinced: Bush visiting Michigan is a good idea. |
