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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Chispas who wrote (14176)10/28/2004 10:47:24 AM
From: mishedlo   of 116555
 
China´s steel products exports to surge by 72 pct yr-on-yr in 2004
Thursday, October 28, 2004 7:37:07 AM
afxpress.com

China's steel products exports to surge by 72 pct yr-on-yr in 2004 BEIJING (AFX) - China's steel products exports are expected to surge as much as 72 pct year-on-year this year reaching nearly 12 mln tons as domestic manufacturers take advantage of higher prices overseas, Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, said

At the same time, imports of steel products are forecast to fall 18.9 pct year-on-year to 30 mln tons

Luo said the average price of steel products in the international market is 100 usd higher than the domestic market

"Imports of steel products are estimated to fall around 20 pct this year to 30 mln tons, while exports will surge 58-72 pct to 11-12 mln tons, against 6.96 mln tons last year," Luo said at a meeting to discuss the industry's performance in the first nine months of this year

In the nine months to September 30, steel production rose 21.6 pct year-on-year to 194.2 mln tons, while steel products output increased 22.8 pct on a yearly basis to 213.9 mln tons, the association said

Output of pig iron rose 21.2 pct year-on-year to 178.4 mln tons

Looking ahead, steel products production is expected to reach 277 mln tons this year, up 14.9 pct year-on-year, from 241 mln tons last year, Qi Xiangdong, the vice secretary general of the association, told the meeting

The forecast output nearly matches the full-year consumption target, which the steel association has set at 276 mln tons, up 13 pct year-on-year

Steel output is likely to grow by 17 pct on a yearly basis to 260 mln tons, and pig iron production will reach 240 mln tons, up 18.6 pct from a year earlier

After reaching heady heights earlier this year, prices for domestic steel and steel products have returned to reasonable levels as the government's macro-economic tightening measures dampen demand, Qi said, adding this trend will largely continue for the rest of the year

"In the fourth quarter, prices of high value-added products will remain high, but prices of low level products such as reinforced bars and wire rods will decline slightly because of sufficient supply in the market," Qi said

However, the sector is still at risk of overheating as some illegal steel manufacturers closed down during the government's crackdown restart production, Luo said
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