Followup note to undecided vote:
Several polls seem to go with undecided voters literally rather than leaning, and several with that approach are the ones with the larger Bush leads:
TIPP with a 3 point Bush lead, shows 7% still undecided, 47 to Bush.
ICR with a 3 Bush lead, shows 5% still undecided, 48 to Bush.
Gallup is the odd one with a 5 Bush lead, 2% undecided, 51 to Bush.
Zogby 2 point Bush lead, 5% undecided, 48 to Bush.
Newsweek 2 point Bush lead, 5% undecided, 48 to Bush.
Rasmussen 2 point Bush lead, 2% undecided, 50 to Bush.
LA Times tie, 3% undecided, 48 to Bush.
Wash Post 1 Kerry lead, 2% undecided, 48 to Bush.
Average is about 4% undecided, so if 50% incumbent and undecided rule holds, and polling is picking up the actual voters (cell phoners? big minority or youth turnout?), then Bush still wins by 1%. Still a little early for the market to be getting the party hats on. |
