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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 58.08+0.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: BulbaMan who wrote (13575)10/28/2004 2:17:53 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Well I confessed to being pretty well hedged through the election. I'm concerned not just about another Forida-type fiasco but also some sort of Madrid-type attack. Even a token attack will be enough to send the markets into a tailspin (and to re-elect Bush to boot).

Certainly the election looks like it will be very close again. But on a purely statistical basis it's unlikely to be as close as last time - that was a once-in-a-lifetime event.

One key question here is how good the polls are. They miss the "cell-only" young voters altogether, and nobody really knows how important that is. My guess at this point is that Kerry will win assuming no dramatic developments before the election - but note this is a different prediction than that made by the betting folks in the UK and by the Iowa markets (although that's a popular vote prediction).

I note Kerry did manage a Red Sox joke - he talked about how a caller to a radio talk show a year-or-so back when Kerry was doing badly disparagingly said Kerry would be President "when the Red Sox win the World Series." And then he added a couple of riffs about "America's team" and "heart." The new warm-and-fuzzy Kerry? Fits right in with the compassionate Bush. Sigh.

Peter
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