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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)	10/28/2004 5:07:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

1. The battleground states will decide the election, and Kerry is doing very well there. If Kerry wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, he wins the election, no matter what happens elsewhere. PA is a given Kerry leads in 9 out of 10 polls the other being a tie. Kerry wins EITHER FL or OH and it is probaly over Kerry wins FL and it IS over If it is OH the Kerry also needs to win eith IA or WI, or pick up a surprise somewhere else National polls are meaningless noise right now for the most part. As long as Bush stays below 49% Bush is unlikely to win. The TRUE battleground states are OH IA WI FL NM Potential Surprise states are NV CO AR If Kerry could swing one or more of those he might be able to afford losing all of IA WI FL NM. That said, races would be peculiar if that transpired. Extremely unlikely. More likely however is that IF Kerry wins FL he does pick up one of the potential surprises on the side. I have a hard time believing Bush can lose FL and win the rest of what I call the battleground states. Kerry winning ONE of the big ones + one other is enough (two out of 5 as long as 1 is FL or OH) Mish

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