Horserace blog - News of the Day for 10-28
1. This afternoon, I will open with two summaries of everything you need to know about this election.
The 10-cent version:
Ryan Lizza, The New Republic Online October 26, 2004: "If Kerry is back in Michigan before Tuesday, it may be a harbinger of bad news on Election Day."
R.W. Apple, The New York Times October 27, 2004: "Mr. Kerry is scheduled to appear in Detroit on Saturday."
The 50-cent version:
In the last week, we have seen the electoral field collapse and expand. No longer are CO and NV in play. Kerry has pulled his advertising out of the former. There is no polling evidence from the latter to indicate that he should spend his money there. We have seen Bush consolidate his position in IA, NM and the all-important FL. Meanwhile, we have seen MI and HI turn into battleground states. We also have not seen NJ fade from the spotlight.
Nevertheless, the dance continues in the MSM. "The election is too close to call." "We might be counting ballots all year." And blah blah blah blah...so many words, so few thoughts.
2. Bush today is heading to Saginaw, MI to rally the base. He then heads to Dayton, OH to get some swing voters to like him. Finally, he heads back to Pennsylvania -- to Yardley, PA. This is in Bucks County, on the eastern edge of the state. It went to Gore by 5%. Given all the time we have seen Bush spend in PA, do you think BC04 knows something that the polls are not picking up?
One other question abounds today. Why Michigan? What has happened? The Old Gray Lady throws a lot of explanatory noodles on the wall, but only one of them sticks:
David Rohde, a professor of political science at Michigan State University, said he had "seen nothing and heard nothing" to explain why Michigan should suddenly "lurch.'' But the candidates' own internal polls, he added, "must show the race tightening in the last days, or they wouldn't be coming here."
And, of course, they forgot to mention that ACT pulled out its GOTV efforts weeks ago. I would say that the rationale for the change with MI is about 70% polls, 30% ACT.
Bush enjoyed a crowd of 25,000 in Lancaster County yesterday, which, for you non-Pennsylvanians, is Amish Country. Sister Sledge was scheduled to appear at the concert (they are big with the Amish), but apparently backed out at the last minute. J/k! Yesterday, I inaccurately said that Lancaster is a swing section. It is not. Bush won it by some 61,000 votes. He'll need to beat that there this time around. Personally, I cannot understand Bush's frequent visits to PA. And, as nothing happens in politics without a reason, we can only conclude BC04 knows something about the Keystone State that the rest of us do not.
The Washington Post has a "What about the freaks? They have rights, too!" story about how BC04 deals decisively with protestors. They make mention of an important fact, but fail to mention its importance:
Tickets to Bush events, distributed by the Republican Party, go only to those who volunteer or donate to the party or, in some cases, sign an endorsement of the GOP ticket and provide names and addresses. Party workers police the crowds for signs of Kerry supporters, who are frequently evicted.
That's right, folks. When you see a BC04 crowd of 20,000 in Michigan -- it means that in that area there are 20,000 BC04 activists. Kerry's shows, meanwhile, are open-to-the-public. Now...which candidate would you rather have?
3. Kerry is having a big time rally in Madison, WI. The Wisconsin State Journal are reporting that county officials are "are bracing for crowds of between 40,000 and 60,000 people." This is surely a sign of popularity in WI. Well...yes...the popularity...of Bruce Springsteen. The Boss is gonna play some tunes for the crowds. Isn't that nice? Kudos to the Wisconsin State Journal for doing the civic-minded thing and implying that the crowd is to see both Kerry and Springsteen. But we here at the Horserace Blog know the real scoop, right?
Afterwards, Kerry holds another Boss-a-riffic rally in Columbus, OH. Earlier today, he was in Toledo, trying to gin up support among the base. He was dragging Bon Jovi around -- who, unlike the Boss, was never cool -- yesterday, making him put concerts on to boost turnout in places like Sioux City. Here is a sign of strength for ya. Bush had about 7,000 people at the US Cellular Center in Sioux City, IA two weeks ago. Kerry at 7,500. Kerry needed Bon Jovi to match Bush.
Perhaps Kerry should have put a New Jersey rocker on the ticket. We could have called the ticket Kersteen or Kerovi. Maybe Kerry will promise to create a new cabinet department, The Department of Rockin' Out!, over the weekend. That would make for a good October surprise.
Forgive my jokes. I just cannot contain myself. This is so lame. This is such a sign of weakness -- that Kerry has to appear with rockers this late in the game. It makes him seem so small.
Kerry continues to harp on the explosives story today, despite concessions about the lack of clarity in the story's timeline. In retrospect, this smells more and more like a rotten strategy. Kudos to The New York Times for doing its letter best to spin their collapsing "scoop" as a sign that BC04 is getting antsy:
The president's comments, his first on the missing explosives since Mr. Kerry began accusing him on Monday of incompetence in failing to secure Iraq after the American-led invasion, reflected concern in the Bush campaign that the issue could be hurting the president only six days before what is expected to be an extraordinarily close election.
What has happened to the Old Gray Lady? She used to be lovely.
4. The Las Vegas Review-Journal scoops the most fitting story of this campaign. Kedwards is sending Clinton out on the campaign trail. Stop #1? SIN CITY:
President Clinton will campaign for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry at 3:30 p.m. at an outdoor rally at the Clark County Government Center Amphitheater, 500 South Grand Central Parkway.
I'll let you make your own joke.
5. It would appear that Bush's amnesty...er...temporary work...program is not helping him among Latinos. So reports The Washington Post:
The new poll also found that Democrat John F. Kerry leads President Bush by 59 percent to 30 percent among registered Hispanic voters, virtually unchanged from a Post-Univision-Tomas Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) survey in July. Independent Ralph Nader received 1 percent.
This is a statistically insignificant difference relative to Bush vs. Gore 2000. Bummer.
6. Early-birds in Jacksonville, FL can catch me on the WOKV Morning Show tomorrow with Mike Cella. I'll be on at between 7:50 AM and 8 AM tomorrow.
7. Finally, BC04 has announced its schedule through Monday, November 1. Here it is:
10/29: Manchester, NH; Columbus, OH; Toledo, OH
10/30: Grand Rapids, MI; WI; Minneapolis, MN
10/31: Gainesville, FL; Orlando, FL; Cincinnati, OH
11/2: Des Moines, IA
I must say that I love this schedule. It hits just the right notes, and it reassures me that MN, MI and...YES!...NH are really in play. He is hitting the major spots of OH. He is hitting his base in FL as well as the I-4 Corridor swing section. I love what is not on the schedule: NM, NV, CO.
What's more I love that they have released their schedule so early. It is, I believe, a sign of strength. For them to know where they are going between now and 11-2 seems to me to mean that they are not worried about putting out brush fires. They must be happy with their internal polling.
My only issue is that it lacks another PA visit.
Kerry, meanwhile, is only scheduled through Saturday morning. Tomorrow he is heading to FL. Saturday he goes to WI in the AM. We know he is going to MI on Sunday. After that...who knows? Kedwards surely does not. They have brushfires to put out!!!
Also, I have not covered the Veep trips much on this blog, but I will note that Cheney is booked through 11-02, while Edwards has left Sunday and Monday entirely open.
A Minnesota registration update is coming later today. Stay tuned!
posted by Jay |
