I will paste below something I wrote earlier tonight. It is a little different take on the election:
Too Close to Call! Missouri now looks safe to me for Bush. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, and Michigan looks like they will probably go Kerry! Bush will probably get Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virgina, and Nevada. Bush may surprise many by taking Minnesota and Hawaii. I believe the Zogby Poll in Colorado is a bad sample. I still think it will go Bush. Wisconsin, and New Jersey could go either way, but if I had to bet I would say Kerry. The entire west coast will go Kerry!
If I am correct on the above, Bush will have only 275 electoral votes. That gives him only 5 votes he can afford to lose which means he would have to win both Colorado and Minnesota. I sure hope I am wrong on Ohio!
If Bush takes Florida and one of the following, Ohio, New Jersey, or Michigan the night is over for Kerry. Bush has a fighting chance in both.
Bush campaign put out a new ad today after saying yesterday that it was through with new ads. It hits Kerry for saying anything to get elected. I believe that Bush will release proof that the missing weapons were already gone by the time they got to the storage area. I believe the ad is the set up to brand Kerry as a liar right before the election. Probably on Sunday. This is just reading the tea leaves, but I have watched Politics for a long time and it looks like a set up to me. I am surprised that Kerry's people hasn't advised him to go positive and back off his current attack. I believe that would be a winning move for Kerry. Bush is taking a big chance running an attack ad as his last ad if he doesn't come out with proof.
One more thought:
If the new terror alert hits the main stream media before the election, it will probably be worth 1% or 2% in the polls for Bush which should take him over the top.
We shall see. |
