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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (20924)	10/28/2004 11:34:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 110194

OK - Lets take a look at the monthly commodity chart mrci.com I am not sure where the average trendline is but 250-260 perhaps. We are only at 280 now in spite of enormous spike in energy costs over the last couple years. We overshot in 1998 and 2001 and are now just above the trendline which seems to be a totally flat line somewhere between 240-260 sugar futuresource.com live cattle futuresource.com corn futuresource.com soybeans futuresource.com coton futuresource.com Orange Juice futuresource.com Lean Hogs futuresource.com Todays favorite bitch... Coffee futuresource.com I had to LMAO at that chart. OK going all the way back to 1990 you tell me which of those are showing us inflation. Where is it? Where is that enormous inflation? Could it be that the 17% energy component is Fucking up the entire index? well lookie here.... Crude futuresource.com Well lookie at this too Natural Gas futuresource.com OK I will grant you a third one Copper futuresource.com Just for fun Gold futuresource.com Lovely.. Finally back to where it was in 1990 Commodity bull market? Mammoth inflation? I have to thank you for the coffee taunt because otherwise I would not have done this. What we are seeing is an ENERGY bull market not a commodities bull market. I will throw in copper and gold for good measure. Energy and metals. That 17% energy component accounts for most of it however. Now is that a function of inflation or a function of decreasing supplies in the face of rising worldwide demand and geopolitical factors to boot? While you can point to $CRB and say lookie, all you are really doing is pointing to energy IMO and saying lookie. Going back to 1990 pointing to coffee inflation is a complete joke. Corn a complete joke, soybeans a joke, sugar a joke, cotton a joke, cattle only slightly above the trendline. Now the question is where to from here. I have bean calls cause I think they are a bargain but it sure is not an "inflation" play. OK what about copper? Is that a function of inflation or is it a function of lack of development due to depressed investment because of poor prices. Now that we see some demand from China causing a spike with mines a year or so away from production, we see screams of inflation. Is that REALLY what it is, or is it an overshoot to the upside because of stupid investment in chip factories instead of copper mines? Given that this rise is ALL energy and copper, lets see what happens when housing slumps worldwide. Perhaps oil stays high but I doubt copper does. BTW Peak oil is NOT inflationary. If it was show me price hikes relative to the price of oil and NG. Mish

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