I expect that whoever wins Florida wins the election.
From the Miami Herald -
According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.
Now I realize if the poll's margin of error were to fall in the president's favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush. But here is why the Herald poll rings true. Between 2000 and 2004, the split between Democrats and Republican is virtually the same in almost every category... The one group that is radically different -- and it is why the poll makes sense -- is a shift among non-Cuban Hispanics, who are backing Kerry almost two-to-one... |
