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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14278)10/29/2004 4:35:10 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (9) of 116555
 
"Most people expect X, so the outcome should be -X" is a line of reasoning I cannot really understand.

Surely, majority can be wrong. But majority can also be right. Assigning probabilities to these two outcomes, (especially to the point of declaring majority is almost always wrong), seems to me a mammoth task of statistical analysis on zillions of historical events on which no majority polling can even be found.

Besides, if the majority is always wrong, that means the markets are always wrong, which means you should always make money by betting against the markets. That, unfortunately, is not the case.
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