California Insider
A Weblog by
Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub
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October 28, 2004
Kerry 49, Bush 42 in Ca--Field Poll
A new Field Poll out this morning shows Kerry up by seven in California, 49-42. His lead is down from 53-41 in August and 49-40 in early October.
Nobody expects Bush to win in California, but Kerry can't be thrilled with a margin that is shrinking rather than growing in one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country. On the other hand, Field showed the same trend in Bush v. Gore in 2000, with Gore's lead shrinking in the final days to seven points. Gore won by 12. Democrats believe Bush's ceiling is right about where he is now -- 40 to 42 points.
Pollster Mark DiCamillo points out that California, increasingly, is two states in one, and this poll reflects that. One of the states is in the big cities and along the coast, where Democrats and moderate Republicans dominate. Kerry leads in LA County 58-34 and in the Bay Area by 63-28. In the Central Valley and in Southern California outside Los Angeles, Bush leads. Those areas, if they formed a separate state, would probably be a mid-sized "red" state for Bush, but are swallowed up here inside the rest of "blue" California.
One other note: Gore in 2000 had a 21-point advantage among women in California. Kerry in this poll has a lead of 14 among women, basically reflecting party preference. |
