Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 257.74

+1.6%

12:43 PM EST

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To: pgerassi who wrote (138209)	10/29/2004 11:26:43 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Dear Pete I checked your figures and they were quite light. 612 GDPW is too high given Intel's production. They must have to throw out quite a few to need 1 300mm fab, much less four. So either they are producing far less than 120K WPW or the mean speed bin of the "good die" is far below saleable speed, a number of sigma below. I unlike you assume the former which does kick up the die cost substantially. Will you try and remember back to where this discussion started? Someone postulated that Intel could sell at a very low price to try and prevent AMD from gaining any market share. That was the premis. You are correct that with lower volumes the numbers don't work but the premis was that Intel would be selling a ton of units at very low prices to maintain market share. So my thesis was based on that premis. BTW, to say "612 GDPW is too high given Intel's production" makes no sense. The yield is a function of defect density, not volume. If you are arguing that they need volume to drive down DD then you didn't make that clear. Also you have no evidence at all to argue that the speed distribution is so wide. In fact you've presented do data whatsoever. The "calculator" you linked to is for a 310mm2 die on a 200mm wafer running only 5000 wafers per month. It doesn't allow for any modifications. The "processed wafer cost per cm2" of $8.85 is very consistent with my calculation of $4-$5 for an 84mm2 die on a 300mm wafer. The die cost of $36.56 is for a die almost 4x the size of Dothan and it's on a 200mm wafer where die costs are higher. In short, your source is agreeing with me. Again, all this is based on the original premis of Intel selling a ton of units for around $15 which would be around cost. [edit: It seems that the die cost in your model is for raw die and makes no mention of actual yield. If you can point out the predicted yield then please do so.]

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