Kerry Has One-Point Lead Over Bush - Reuters Poll
27 minutes ago Politics - Reuters
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) moved into a one-point lead over President Bush (news - web sites) three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.
The White House rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in fewer than 10 battleground states that hold the key to a win on Tuesday.
Neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage or break the 50 percent barrier since the tracking poll began on Oct. 7.
"Bush continues to hold on to solid support among Republicans, investors, married voters and born again Christians," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry expands his lead among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics."
But Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.
The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by four points in the daily tracking poll.
The poll of 1,209 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in six of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.
Bush led in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada. Kerry led in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites), blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.8 percent.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen. |
