Battlegrounders
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OHIO: ARNOLD [Kevin Holtsberry 10/29 10:24 PM]
Just got back from the Bush Rally at Nationwide Arena here in Columbus Ohio. It is hard to know what to make of these type of things, but the crowd was pumped. If filing a 20,000 plus arena full of screaming supporters who give you a full 10 minute standing ovation means something then I would say Bush is doing well in Central Ohio. When Bush and Governor Schwarzenegger took the stage the crowd simply refused to stop clapping and shouting for some time. Eventually they quieted down and Ah-nold gave a rousing introduction to President Bush. He really drove home the point that the election rested in the hands of the people who filled the arena. It is up to the dedicated volunteers and average people to get out the vote for President Bush; to beat the liberal activists at their own game. Funny how good a stump speaker Schwarzenegger is compared to some of the politicians that proceeded him. He really got the crowd fired up. I guess Hollywood does have its benefits.
President Bush seemed in good spirits but spoke quietly at times, like he was trying to save his voice. He was funny as usual, but he really hammered home the serious nature of the election. ALthough I am sure it was the standard stump speech of the last few days, it also seemed an effective contrasting of Bush's commitment and determination with Kerry's vacillation and monday morning quarterbacking. Bush came across as a man comfortable in his own skin, who sticks to his guns, and keeps his promises. As Jay Nordlinger said after the third debate, if America doesn't re-elect Bush it is their loss.
I don't know what will happen in Ohio in the next few days, but I do know this: 20,000 people left the arena her in Columbus excited and determined to win Ohio for Bush. In a few days we will know whether they accomplished their goal.
PENNSYLVANIA: THE AMISH [David Hogberg 10/29 06:47 PM]
Well, after a bunch of emails yesterday trying to answer my questions about the Amish, I can happily say that it is inconclusive. A few did suggest that the Amish vote might not be showing up in the polls since they don’t have phones. Others suggested that the Amish don’t vote and there isn’t a lot of evidence suggesting it will change this year. Others say that there are not enough Amish to make a huge difference.
Still others say that they aren’t Amish, but Mennonites who do vote and do have access to phones. There were a lot of Mennonites in Iowa, and I often saw them at the Wal-Mart while I lived in the Ethanol state. (Having been in D.C. for about three months now, I can safely say, I MISS MY WAL-MART!)
So, if I had to make a wild guess (based on emails), the Amish might make a difference of ½ to 1% in the polls. Not much, unless the race is very close.
MICHIGAN: KERRY WINS HERE [Henry Payne 10/29 05:00 PM]
Michigan, the state's top political experts maintain, will go to John Kerry.
"Kerry will win Michigan," says Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Politics, and one of Michigan's most revered election watchers. Polls back him up. Kerry has led in 37 of 40 Michigan polls taken since August. Among a flurry of last minute prognosticating, only a Detroit News poll last week put Bush ahead.
So why are Republicans still spending so much valuable time here just days before November 2?
Cheney is in today and Bush will be back in West Michigan Saturday. Ed Gillespie, GOP party chair, was in Detroit Friday making the newspaper rounds. In a visit to The Detroit News, Gillespie clearly felt his candidate has momentum.
But Republicans do have a worry. The Republican rumor mill is abuzz that CBS News plans another "October Surprise" attack on Bush this Sunday. And as the New York Times/CBS stolen weapons bombshell proves, these two media organizations will try anything to get their man Kerry in. . . .
ARKANSAS: IN PLAY, SORT OF [Kane Webb 10/29 04:28 PM]
I still don't see John Kerry pulling off the upset in
Arkansas, but the Democrats haven't given up yet. They're taking a last stab
at our six little electoral votes — which went to GWB in 2000 — by spending
big, well, medium on TV ads ($250,000 of Bush-bashing) and dispatching
homeboy Bill Clinton to the state on Sunday. Here are excerpts from Jake
Bleed's story in today's Arkansas Democrat-Gazette:
Polling numbers showing a close race in Arkansas between Republican
President Bush and his Democratic rival, U.S. Sen. John Kerry of
Massachusetts, led the Democratic National Committee to announce a $250,000
television advertising campaign that began Thursday night and will continue
through Election Day, said Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the committee.
"We would not be spending a quarter-million dollars on the four days that
are going to be left if it did not show that this is an important state for
us and one that we can win," McAuliffe said in a conference call with
Arkansas reporters.
The Republican Arkansas Leadership Committee also launched a $45,000
statewide radio campaign featuring Gov. Mike Huckabee, Lt. Gov. Win
Rockefeller and Deena Burnett, whose husband died in the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks and who now campaigns for Bush.
"The battleground of Arkansas has heated up in the last few days," Huckabee
said. "Arkansas is once again in play."
In 2000, Bush won in Arkansas, defeating Democrat Al Gore by 5 percentage
points.
Former President Clinton will arrive in Arkansas on Sunday, McAuliffe said,
the last stop in his campaign for Kerry. . . .
"We know that this is a state that is switching from red to blue on
Tuesday," McAuliffe said, referring to colors used by some to denote how
states will vote in the election. Red states are supporting Bush and blue
states are going for Kerry.
In anticipation of Clinton¹s arrival, the Republican radio advertisements
will target the former Arkansas governor specifically, saying he is out of
touch with Arkansas.
One advertisement featuring Huckabee says Clinton "hasn¹t lived in Arkansas
for 12 years" and concludes by saying "Bill Clinton may have changed, but
Arkansas values have not."
Arkansas Democratic Party Chairman Ron Oliver of North Little Rock said
Clinton was out of touch with Arkansas in the "dreams" of the state
Republican Party.
"They would like you to believe that," Oliver said, adding that Clinton
remains in touch with his home state. . . .
Huckabee said the ads were in response to Clinton¹s criticism of the Bush
campaign. "He engaged first on the battlefield, and we felt it was due a
response," said Huckabee, chairman of the Bush campaign in Arkansas.
"Anytime a person steps on the battlefield, he or she is subject to return
fire," Huckabee said. . . .
Despite the attention, Huckabee said Arkansas is not as much of a political
battleground as he found in other states while campaigning for Bush. In
recent weeks, he has campaigned for Bush in at least seven other states ‹
Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Missouri.
He said the election is being fought with "a great deal more intensity" in
those states. |
