Bush Leads by 6 Points in Poll After Bin Laden Tape (Update1) quote.bloomberg.com
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush leads Senator John Kerry by 6 percentage points among likely voters, compared with a 2-point advantage last week, a Newsweek magazine poll said.
Fifty percent of likely voters favor Bush, compared with 44 percent for Kerry, within the Oct. 27-29 poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, Newsweek said. Last week, Bush drew 48 percent and Kerry 46 percent, the magazine said. The race is tighter among the 1,005 registered voters interviewed, with 48 percent backing Bush and 44 percent supporting Kerry.
Newsweek started its third night of polling after Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks, appeared in a videotape warning Americans that another terrorist strike on the U.S. is possible.
``Whenever the subject of the campaign has turned to terrorism, it has benefited Bush,'' Newsweek said on its Web site. ``In every poll since the campaign began, voters have said they trust Bush more than Kerry to handle the challenges of terrorism and homeland security -- usually by a 15-to-20-point margin.''
Kerry, 60, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, says Bush, 58, mishandled the hunt for bin Laden as well as the war in Iraq, and he would enlist more U.S. allies to wage a ``smarter'' battle against terrorism.
Zogby Survey
Kerry received 47 percent support and Bush 46 percent backing in a nationwide survey by Reuters/Zogby with four days to go before the Nov. 2 election. Three percent were undecided in the Oct. 27-29 tracking poll of 1,209 likely voters, which had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent each in an Oct. 26-28 Zogby survey.
Independent Ralph Nader drew 1.8 percent support in Zogby's poll, up from 1.4 percent Oct. 26-28. Nader is supported by 1 percent of likely voters in the Newsweek poll.
Bush led Kerry by 50 percent to 47 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. The Oct. 25-28 telephone survey had a 2 percentage-point error margin. The 2,047 respondents said they were registered to vote, intended to participate in the election and cast ballots in past elections.
The Zogby and Washington Post tracking polls interview a portion of the sample every day, and the results are an average of three days of polling. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.
Job-Approval Rating
A 56 percent majority in the Newsweek poll said they're dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and 39 percent said their satisfied. Bush's job-approval rating was 46 percent, compared with 47 percent who disapproved of his performance. Registered voters in Newsweek's poll said they trust Bush over Kerry 56 percent to 37 percent to combat terrorism.
The Zogby poll found Bush and Kerry statistically tied in four states with a total of 85 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. The electoral vote, apportioned among the states based on congressional representation, determines the election result.
Kerry had 47 percent support and the president 45 percent in Florida, Zogby reported. Florida decided the 2000 election for Bush after the U.S. Supreme Court halted a ballot recount. In Pennsylvania, Kerry had 47 percent to 44 percent for Bush. In Ohio, the president had 46 percent support, compared with 45 percent for Kerry, the poll found. Bush had 48 percent support and Kerry 46 percent in Michigan, Zogby said.
Shift in Michigan
Among the 10 states tracked by Zogby, Michigan showed the biggest swing in the last week; an Oct 21-24 poll showed Kerry ahead by 10 percentage points. Michigan, with 17 electoral votes, has backed the Democratic ticket in the past three presidential elections. Bush campaigned in the state Oct. 27-28 and today.
Zogby International, based in Utica, New York, surveyed about 600 likely voters in each state; each poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
In two states -- Nevada and New Mexico, each with 5 electoral votes -- Bush held leads outside the margins of error, Zogby found. In Nevada, Bush led Kerry by 54 percent to 44 percent; in New Mexico, Bush was ahead 51 percent to 42 percent.
In two states with 10 votes each, Kerry maintains leads over the president: 50 percent to Bush's 45 percent in Wisconsin and 49 percent to 43 percent in Minnesota.
A review of polls shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Arkansas, with 174 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York and Maine, with 170 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 194 electoral votes, including Florida and Pennsylvania, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Glenn Hall in Washington at ghall@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 30, 2004 14:44 EDT |
