Kerry 55, Bush 45
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The Editor of Vanity Fair Makes His Prediction...
Posted by James Wolcott
10.29.04 4:06PM
jameswolcott.com
That's my election prediction. Weigh it for what it's worth: nothing.
How did I arrive at that figure, as I rode the Metroliner back from DC this morning? (I was on C-SPAN last night, an hour and a half of pure enlightment that will be rebroadcast again this weekend--I'll post the details when i have them.) Oh, I could pull out electoral wonk explanations, such as how a big turnout (which this election will be) benefits Democrats, how Bush remains sunken below the 50 percent level in nearly all of the battleground state polls (a dire state for an incumbent to be in), how young people are showing a motivation to vote not seen since 1992 (when they helped put Clinton over), how Bush has managed to erode so many once-solid pockets of support (losing Arab Americans in Michigan, throwing the evangelicals a curve with his offhand, last-minute endorsement of gay civil unions, etc), how the news cycle has turned against him, all that.
But for shorthand what I did was take the Nickolodeon Poll for kids, which has correctly predicted the last four elections, and work from there.
The bright youngsters who took part in this poll, 400,000 strong, voted Kerry 57, Bush 43.
Since kids are naturally exuberant, until it's beaten out of them by the System, I shaved off two points from Kerry, gave those two to Bush.
Kerry 55, Bush 45, that's my lighter than air prediction.
One complication: the networks are broadcasting news of a new bin Laden videotape, a pre-Halloween scare. I have no idea how this tape will play out politically since the specific contents are unclear as yet--whether it will rally lots of voters to the president out of fear or remind them that Bush for all his Terror Fighter swagger hasn't been able to nab this guy. Or perhaps it will be a wash for both candidates. The nonreaction of the stock market to word of a new bin Laden tape suggests this. But it's a tricky business for Bush should he tout this tape as proof the evildoers are still out there, since Kerry can then toss back the failure to capture bin Laden at Tora Bora--a storyline he's already established. |
