UW ...What's the 10th SFG up to here?...jj
adventuresofchester.blogspot.com
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Zarqawi: Forces are gathering against you . . .
All right folks, here's an update on the situation in Fallujah (map here, here, more maps and imagery here):
US ORDER OF BATTLE
The Black Watch and 1st The Queen's Dragoon Guards are moving from their relatively quiet neighborhood in southern Iraq to the outskirts of western Baghdad. This will allow the I Marine Expeditionary Force's 1st Marine Division, which is based in Al-Anbar province to shift an extra battalion to the Fallujah/Ramadi area, probably to use as a tactical reserve. My guess is that the attack will be prosecuted by the 1st Marine Regiment, with appropriate attachments, supported by CSSB-1 and given air support by at least a full Marine Air Group.
The forces that go in will be based in the MEK Training Camp, or Al Taqaddum Airbase (note: this is all publicly available information).
I think it is safe to guess that it will take the British forces about a week to get settled into their new area of operations. They should take at least a week to get to know the area with the Marines they are relieving. For a permanent relief, two-four weeks would be more accurate, but I think the shift of British troops is a temporary move -- maybe for six weeks tops for the course of the battle and the cleanup.
In addition to 1st Marines, the order of battle will include at least a 3:2 ratio of US to Iraqi forces (same as Samarra): I estimate this at around 2000 to 3000 Marines on the ground, with 1300-2000 Iraqi forces attached to the regiment.
Globalstrategy.org is also reporting that around 1000 members of the Army's 10th Special Forces Group have recently been deployed from Colorado, with no mention of where they are going.
The article states that the only two possible destinations for these Green Berets are: to find Osama bin Laden, or to reinforce Marine units preparing to assault Fallujah. I don't think they are going to the Paki-Afghani border. Not only do I think that Osama is most likely dead (why haven't we heard from him in 2 and 1/2 years?), but I also think that in the estimation of the Pentagon and the Bush administration, events on the ground in Iraq, especially those involving Zarqwai, are a greater threat to US stratgey than is the finding of Osama at this particular moment.
Would Green Berets be helpful with Marines? Not so sure about this one. Usually you would want to train for a good bit together before adding them to the mix, so you could be sure that your techniques and theirs are mutually understandable. This would not be the case though, if the ODA teams are going to be given a very specific mission, like manhunts, or lasing targets, or using the their language skills in a civil-affairs role after the fight. Or you could give them a particular part of the battlespace, like a certain neighborhood or area where their skills might work best. Another idea: let's assume that the US has VERY GOOD ground intelligence on the locations and activities of the insurgent forces. This is a safe assumption given the time put in to developing and working with Iraqi National Forces, and because of the number of successful precision airstrikes that we've pulled off lately. The thing that could make those intelligence sources really sing in a productive manner, and decrease our decision cycle greatly, would be to link them up with US forces that speak Arabic and have expertise in targeting and urban pursuit. My overall opinion: if you see 1000 Green Berets show up in Fallujah, the reason they will be there is their Arabic skills, only a few dozen will participate in the fight, and the rest will roll in during the aftermath for intelligence exploitation. One thousand is a TON of Green Berets though. A thousand would normally be employed over a very large area. You just don't mass those troops on the battlefield. But this campaign has seen stranger things . . . another way to employ a large number would be if they were going to integrate with Iraqi National Forces for the battle. But again, you don't do this without some extensive training together. At this point in the game, whoever has been training the Iraqis and working with them is going to continue to do so. They're not going to bring in any pinch-hitters here in the ninth inning. |
