Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Perspective who wrote (14353)	10/31/2004 3:55:41 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (4) of 116555

BC, my strategy in regards to US bubbles Bubbles we have: 1. General credit bubble 2. RE financing bubble 3. Subprime financing bubble My assumptions: 1. No one will ring the bell at the top. 2. The market will sense the bubble coming unglued well in advance and will make the first move on no news. I don't want to miss this first move therefore I risk my capital now. My positions. General credit bubble Long puts on XLF. Time premium is very small especially when you take into account dividends XLF pays. RE financing bubble Short position in mortgage insurers. Their business already very bad even with strong RE. They have been loosing prime customers who can always get 80/10/10 loans. Despite strong RE values credit quality of their customers deteriorating. Subprime financing bubble Short position in NEW and ACF. Comments anybody?

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