>>>>>>>Although I agree with you in that both XMSR and SIRI are way overvalued at this point, the hype, which is where they both are, favors SIRI at least in the speculative momo field.
Actually, this is not really my view -- I believe SIRI is and has been overvalued for a while (with the exception of its recent drop to the low $2 range). XM seems to be in the ballpark of a reasonable valuation, although I really think it is a little low given where they are vs. where SIRI is.
Content isn't what sells SDARS today. Hardware is. OEM deals are. The content deal was necessary for XM only because it needed to be perceived as a content "equal" -- and they clearly accomplished this.
Sirius got screwed on the Stern deal. You come across as one of the many Stern fanatics. But the idea that all these people are going to follow him 15 months hence is just silly. Some will, most won't.
XM is just the leader in every department -- OEMs, music content, now sports content, hardware (by a MILE), general management performance, you name it. XM is close to CFBE while Sirius is years away. XM will not need to dilute further, Sirius has at least 1 or 2 more rounds of dilution/debt to go.
Honestly, owning Sirius when you can own XM makes absolutely zero sense from any reasonable point of view. That's not to say you can't make money with Sirius. But XM has a great deal more upside potential over the coming 3 years or so. |
