>This is what the US has done for the last 50 years, as jobs were lost more productive jobs took their place.>
I would think that jobs will move to professions that are less productive (that is require more labor hours per unit of output). So as agriculture got more automated and productive, jobs moved to manufacturing. As manufacturing got more automated and productive, jobs moved to services. As services got more automated (for example, secretarial duties such as message taking, typing etc got more automated), the jobs moved to complex services such as programming and analysis.
For some reason, US has been able to generate enough jobs in the next higher level of complexity, requiring more training, knowledge, and labor component. Or it could be that the labor mobility within US is so flexible that the people who lose jobs in one industry move to occupations that have good demand for their products/services but poor labor productivity, where labor is constraining the growth.
A huge number of jobs are created in which the labor component is high and labor productivity is not going up. Examples are typically in small businesses - retailers, restaurants, construction, janitorial, lawn mowing services, snow removal, child care workers. Immigrants are ready to take up these jobs, as many of the immigrants are illegal and don't have access to any other jobs. Due to the big supply, these jobs remain low paying and not worth having for long-time american residents.
One industry where the labor component as well as demand is high is healthcare. This also happens to be a significant portion of household/employer expenses. There are still jobs and decent wages to be found in healthcare.
-Arun
|
