Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 256.70

+1.2%

1:04 PM EST

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To: KeithDust2000 who wrote (138366)	11/1/2004 10:32:27 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Keith, There is some seasonality that probably dictates against getting any additional capacity for H1 05. Let's say it is: Q3: 7.50M Q4: 8.25M Q1: 7.50M Q2: 6.75M AMD may gain some share on top of that, let's say .25M or .50M per quarter, so the numbers would be: Q3: 7.50M 7.50M Q4: 8.50M 8.75M Q1: 8.00M 8.50M Q2: 7.50M 8.25M Q3: 8.50M 9.50M there should be still plenty of capacity available. The "problem" or the opportunity comes in Q3 and Q4 of 2005, which is before the Fab 36 comes on line, and dual core becomes popular. AMD should be able to produce 10M 100mm^2 parts, but for a 0.5M dual core, maybe 1.5M single core need to be sacrificed, reducing the capacity to 9M, to produce 0.5M dual core. All the numbers are WAGs, BTW. That's why I posted that the earliest demand for capacity would be for production wafer starts sometimes in Q2 2005 (probably early Q2) for output in Q3 2005, unless we see a miraculout pickup in demand. Joe

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