Bush, Kerry Tied in National Polls a Day Before Vote (Update2)
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry were deadlocked in four national polls of likely voters released late yesterday and today as the final hours of campaigning in the presidential election began.
Bush led Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, by 48 percent to 47 percent in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, and by 49 percent to 46 percent in a CBS News/New York Times survey. The polls were conducted Oct. 28-31. A Marist College poll Oct. 31 found Kerry at 49 percent and Bush at 48 percent. All results were within the polls' error margins.
The closeness of the race also is reflected in polls of the ``battleground'' states. Surveys by the Gallup Organization show Kerry leading in Minnesota and Ohio, Bush with an edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the two statistically tied in Florida and Iowa.
Zogby International's polls showed Kerry ahead in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Bush leading in Nevada. Polls by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac showed Bush leading in Florida and a tie in Pennsylvania.
The state results are key because the winner is determined by a vote of at least 270 state delegates to the Electoral College. Gallup estimates Kerry and Bush each will end up with about 49 percent of the national vote on Election Day.
`Too Close to Call'
``We are basically saying that it is too close to call,'' said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Washington-based Gallup. ``Bush has a very slight, non-statistically significant, lead'' which goes away when the undecided voters are factored in.
The same is true of the state-by-state polls, he said. ``You can still concoct a scenario'' where either candidate wins, Newport said.
Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60, also were tied among likely voters nationwide in polls by the Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters/Zogby and Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group that concluded on Oct. 30. Three other polls showed Bush with a lead of as much as 5 percentage points.
The poll results suggest the election may be heading for a repeat of the 2000 balloting. In that contest, Democrat Al Gore won 48.38 percent of the nationwide total vote to Bush's 47.87 percent. Bush won the Electoral College after the U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount in Florida, leaving Bush with a victory in the state by 537 ballots out of about 6 million cast. Florida was enough to give him 271 electoral votes.
Bin Laden Tape
The polls were conducted during a period when a videotape of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden was released in which the mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks said Bush's policies are a threat to Muslims and that another strike is possible.
Only the final day of the CBS News/New York Times poll followed the tape's first broadcast Oct. 29. Results following the tape's airing were about the same as before it was shown, CBS News said on its Web site, suggesting it will have little effect on the presidential race.
In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, about two-thirds of 600 likely voters questioned about a video of bin Laden said it didn't make a difference to how they intend to vote. About a quarter said the video made them more likely to vote for Bush and 12 percent said it made them more likely to choose Kerry.
On NBC's ``Meet the Press,'' Peter Hart, head of the Washington polling firm Peter D. Hart Research, which conducts surveys for the Wall Street Journal, called the impact of the bin Laden tape a ``net zero'' in terms of effect on the election.
``On one hand, it moves the issue to the forefront, which is national security, which is the president's issue,'' Hart said. ``On the other hand, I think it reminds people that, no, we haven't captured Osama bin Laden.''
Undecided Voters
The national Gallup poll interviewed 1,573 adults 18 or older identified as likely to vote Oct. 29-31. When an estimate of undecided voters' intentions is included in the poll, the results are tied at 49 percent each for Bush and Kerry. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Zogby's state polls surveyed 600 likely voters in each state Oct. 28-31 and have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
The Journal/NBC poll of 1,014 likely voters, conducted over the same period, has an error margin of 3.1 percent. The Times/CBS poll was conducted Oct. 28-30 among 643 likely voters and has an error margin of 4 points.
The poll by Poughkeepsie, New York-based Marist College included 987 likely voters and has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.
Turning Out Voters
Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican supporting Bush, and Senator Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat backing Kerry, said the election will turn on each campaign's ability to motivate voters and the results from a few key states.
``Every election, we say it depends on voter turnout'' McCain said on CBS's ``Face the Nation'' program. ``It really does this time.''
On the same program, Biden said the race will come down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
``I think he wins Pennsylvania,'' Biden said. ``I think it comes down to whether John wins one of the other two states. If he does, I think he's president, because he'll win Pennsylvania.''
In Gallup's state polls, 52 percent of likely voters in Minnesota said they'd vote for Kerry, 44 percent for Bush, and 1 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is on the ballot in 34 states and Washington, D.C.
In Ohio, Kerry led Bush by 50 percent to 46 percent. In Florida, Kerry had 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. In Pennsylvania, Bush led Kerry 50 percent to 46 percent, and 52 percent to 44 percent in Wisconsin. In Iowa, Bush leads by 48 percent to 46 percent.
Electoral College
The polls were conducted Oct. 27-31 among about 1,100 adults identified as likely to vote in each state. Each has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The six states combined have 95 of the 270 Electoral College votes a candidate needs to win the presidency.
The electoral votes are apportioned among the states based on congressional representation and they are awarded to the candidate who wins the most votes statewide. In the 2000 election, Bush won Florida and Ohio while losing Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polling organizations generally identify likely voters by asking questions to measure registration status, interest in the election, past voting behavior and voting intentions this year. Not all adults 18 or older may be eligible or registered to vote and not all registered voters take part in elections. In 2000, about one-third of U.S. registered voters didn't cast ballots.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Edvard Pettersson in Los Angeles at epettersson@bloomberg.net
Heather Langan in London at hlangan@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Glenn Holdcraft at gholdcraft@bloomberg.net
Peter Torday at ptorday@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 1, 2004 10:15 EST
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