Kerry Heading For a Large Victory?
by Chris Bowers
My final projections will answer no, but Gallup certainly seems to think so (emphasis in original):
As we know by now, Gallup released its last national poll last night, and as we expected, in order to preserve its credibility Gallup's last poll amongst LVs shows last week's 5% lead for Bush (51%-46%) now shrinking to a 49%-47% lead for Bush over Kerry [49-49 with leaners]. Amongst registered voters, Kerry has a 48%-46% lead.
But toss out those results by Gallup. Why? Because take a look at the composition of the LV and RV samples by party ID that Gallup used last night in their poll. I just got the internals from Gallup, and the LV sample they used had a 5% GOP advantage over the Democrats, and Kerry still almost tied Bush.
1573 Likely Voters
1559 In Sample
Bush Leads Kerry 49%-47%
GOP: 624 (40%)
Ind: 389 (25%)
Dem: 546 (35%)
When compared to the 2000 exit poll results, Gallup under sampled Democrats by 4% and over sampled Republicans by 5%, a nifty 9% swing. If the sample was reweighted to more closely follow the 2000 exit poll party ID breakdown of 39% Dem/35% GOP/26% Ind, can you imagine what kind of lead Kerry would have?
Fox seems to think so as well, and it is causing Limbaugh's head to explode:
Fat rush is in a meltdown on the air right now. As he came on the air they handed him the incredible fox news poll results and he freaked out. He just "cant believe how stupid Americans are" Bush "should be leading by 30 points" says the porky pig of right wing talk radio.
He was "shocked all weekend as he saw how desensitized Americans are to OBL, the man who murdered 3000 of us." Rush had expected a bush bounce of 10 points over the weekend and he is stuck with a -2 thud!
Hahahahahahaha!
The internals of the Fox poll give Bush a 91-5 lead among Republicans, Kerry a 91-6 lead among Democrats, and Kerry a 46-40 lead among Independents. In other words, even though they show Kerry winning, they also over-sampled Republicans.
According to 2000 Party ID exit polls, Kerry would lead 49.17 to 44.91, even before the undecided break. That would result in an election similar to 1988, with Kerry sweeping every swing state plus Virginia and maybe North Carolina.
Oh yeah, the Democracy Corps poll, while Democratic and showing a 48-47 Kerry lead, was actually 39D-39R. Further, Zogby admitted to under-sampling voters under 30, where Kerry held a 2-1 lead. Now, I personally do not think that Kerry will win big, but it remains an outside possibility. Right now, a big win for Bush looks impossible.
mydd.com |
