They are still betting on Bush, as is the stock market it would appear:
mybetting.co.uk
TIPP poll closes gap to Bush by 2, only Newsweek seems to be an outlier. And if you can't trust Fox News for right wing political bias, Kerry by 2 <vbg>. Even skewed sampler Gallup shows a tie:
realclearpolitics.com
Marist Poll also shows the upsurge in Kerry intensity necessary to stand in long battleground state voting lines. Bush shows little change.
Bush supporters
November 1, 2004
strong support 87%
11%
2%
<1%
October 21, 2004
85%
11%
4%
<1%
Kerry supporters
November 1, 2004
strong support 85%
12%
3%
<1%
October 21, 2004
strong support 78%
18%
4%
<1%
Another example of strange sampling, a poll that uses a 42% Republican, 40% Democrat, 18% Independent mix, and still tied.
11/1/2004
Mitchell National Poll: B49-K48Hot off the presses.
The complete press release:
President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry are in a statistical dead heat in a national telephone survey of 811 likely voters conducted October 30 and 31 by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. of East Lansing, Michigan for WDIV-TV, the NBC affiliate in Detroit.
“After four years and hundreds of millions of dollars, the race for president nationally is a dead heat. The popular vote in the election tomorrow should be as close as it was four years ago. The battleground states electoral votes are going to determine which man will be our next president,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications said.
It is clear from the poll data that Bush voters are motivated to vote for him based on security concerns while Kerry voters are motivated to vote for him based on jobs and the economy.
“After the trial ballot question, we asked voters: ‘in making your choice for President, which was most important to you, a) homeland security/national security or b) jobs and the economy.’ Of all voters, 45% said security while 36% said jobs. Of those who say security, Bush leads 65%-25%, while Kerry leads 66%-20% among those who say jobs/economy,” Mitchell said.
In the sample, 42% of the respondents identified themselves as Republicans while 40% said they were Democrats. Bush led among Republicans 87%-7% while Kerry led among Democrats 81%-10%. Kerry led among Independents 41%-34%.
The telephone survey of 811 Likely voters was conducted Saturday, October 30th and Sunday October 31st . The sample was stratified based on voter turnout in the 2000 election. The poll has a margin of error of + or – 3% at the 95% level of confidence. Two thirds of the undecided voters have been allocated to Kerry, one-third to Bush. Nader is receiving 1% of the vote, other candidates 1%. It does not total 100% due to rounding. |
