Election Eve has arrived and it is now time for me to put together my watch list for tomorrow night. I will also go ahead and make my final projections of the electoral vote.
I will assign all but 10 states to Bush and Kerry that I believe have little chance of going to the other candidate.
Bush: 238 Electoral Votes
AL(9), AK(3), AZ(10), AR(6), CO(9), GA(15), ID(4), IN(11), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MS(6), MO(11), MT(3), NE(5), NV(5), NC(15), ND(3), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WV(5), AND WY(3).
Kerry: 175 Electoral Votes
CA(55), CT(7), DE(3), DC(3), IL(21), ME(4), MD(10), MA(12), NJ(15), NY(31), OR(7), RI(4), and VT(3).
10 States to watch: 136 Electoral Votes
Bush needs 43 Electoral Votes to win.
Kerry needs 95 Electoral Votes to win.
Bush Kerry
FL(27): 27
HI(4): 4
IA(7): 7
MI(17): 17
MN(10): 10
NH(4): 4
NM(5): 5
OH(20): 20
PA(21): 21
WI(10): 10
Bush projected to get 297 Electoral Votes.
Kerry projected to get 241 Electoral Votes.
Note: Bush can win without Flordia in more than one way. He is unlikely to win if he loses both Ohio and Flordia although it is still possible looking only at the 10 swing states above. |
