HORSERACE BLOG - An Note from an Astute Reader...
By Jay
Nixguy has taken a look at the OH registration data. Once again, the "lie" is put to all these Democratic 527s. His conclusion:
In a perfect replay of 2000, if each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat, with the same turnout figures, Bush gets 157,431 more votes (than he did in 2000); Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Gore did.
That would be a net 36,651 votes for Dubya due to registration changes alone. Something tells me George Soros is going to regret having dumped so much Ohio GOTV cash in the hands of Dean's Iowa GOTV Director.
Poll Update
[EDIT: IF HE IS RIGHT ON OHIO AND FLORIDA, IT'S ALL OVER.]
Note: The Horserace Blogger is running a tad low on sleep these days, and it was evident in the many mistakes in my morning post. Good thing that Mrs. Horserace Blogger read my evening posts. She is a big help. Here are the updated numbers for the evening.
Ohio
Bush: 48.45%
Kerry: 47.42%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 5,614; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Cleveland Plain-Dealer 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31, University of Cincinatti 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 86.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Florida
Bush: 48.09%
Kerry: 46.50%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 4,762; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Insider Advantage 11/01, Strategic Vision 11/01, Quinnipiac 11/01, Gallup 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 94.06% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Minnesota
Bush: 46.02%
Kerry: 48.26%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Respondents: 2,634; Polls Used: St. Paul Pioneer Press 10/31; Strategic Vision 11/01; Humphrey Institute 10/27; Mason-Dixon 10/30; Gallup 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 94.74% confident that Kerry currently has a lead.
Pennsylvania
Bush: 47.53%
Kerry: 46.87%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Respondents: 3,417; Polls Used: Gallup 10/31, Quinnipiac 11/01, Mason Dixon 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01)
Based on these results, we can be 70.88% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Wisconsin
Bush: 48.85%
Kerry: 45.41%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 3,790; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Strategic Vision 11/01, Badger Poll 10/28, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 99.87% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Iowa
Bush: 47.90%
Kerry: 46.03%
MOE: +/- 1.4%
(Respondents: 4,651; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Des Moines Register 10/31, Research 2000 10/28, Strategic Vision 11/01, Gallup 10/31, Mason-Dixon 10/30)
Based on these results, we can be 96.56% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Michigan
Bush: 44.26%
Kerry: 46.01%
MOE: +/- 1.9%
(Respondents: 2,425; Polls Used: Mason-Dixon 10/30, Detroit News 10/31,
Research 2000 10/28, Strategic Vision 11/01)
Based on these results, we can be 89.07% confident that Kerry presently has a lead
New Mexico
Bush: 49.17%
Kerry: 47.00%
MOE: +/- 2.4%
(Respondents: 1,625; Polls Used: Albuquerque Journal, Mason Dixon)
Based on these results, we can be 97.32% confident that Bush has a lead.
Nationwide
Bush: 48.63%
Kerry: 46.24%
MOE: +/- 0.9%
(Respondents: 15,160; Polls Used: Harris 11/1, Marist 11/1, Newsweek 10/30, ABC News 10/31, Gallup 10/31 (sans leaners), GWU/Battleground 10/28-10/31, Fox News 10/29-11/01, Pew 10/31 (sans leaners), NBC News/WSJ 10/31, CBS News/NY Times 11/1, Battleground 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be >99.99% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4%
Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2%
Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory.
Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it is indeed Bush 306 or 327 to Kerry 232 or 211.
Sleep well, folks. |
