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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: michael97123 who wrote (150355)11/2/2004 5:36:42 AM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I think Bin Laden's message can be taken more at face value than you might expect. I think he's serious in saying that neither Bush nor Kerry are likely to alter policies in a meaningful way that would appeal to his causes.

But I completely disagree with your conclusion that a Kerry win automatically means an attack, to "test" the man, because Bin Laden isn't "testing" the US but punishing the US. As a result, further if not immediate attacks are more likely under Bush (whose approach is already known to Bin Laden) than under Kerry (who may yet surprise).

In my view, a Bush win automatically *increases* the chance of further attacks, because Bush is entirely a known quantity to Bin Laden. There is simply no need for Bin Laden to give Bush any further time to see if Bush is going to change his approach - this is already a given: he won't.

I would not be surprised then to see an attack soon after, if not immediately after, a Bush win. Or on some date symbolic to the Bush clan.
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