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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Dr. Id who wrote (150376)	11/2/2004 6:13:53 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) of 281500

I don't think Michael is an undecided at all. ;-) I refuse to call the election, but will venture to predict: - Crude contract bounces back above 50 and climbs higher under a Bush win. - US Dollar resumes its fall under a Bush win. - Gold also rises with a Bush win. Crude and Gold have weakened here recently -- I'm thinking that perhaps some of the big money is betting on a Kerry win, since all the while Bush had a sizable lead, Crude and Gold were strengthening; the Dollar was weakening (the latter in part due to failed fiscal management under Bush). Perhaps the weakening is simply profit taking ahead of the big event; but there may be a recognition that Kerry might just win.

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