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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who wrote (82705)	11/2/2004 9:52:45 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) of 793838

ATLANTIC BLOG - Betting markets It will be interesting to see how the betting markets compare to the actual election. John Delaney, the chief executive of Tradesports, which is based in Dublin, was on Morning Ireland this morning to explain what they do and how the betting is going. Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election Justin Wolfers, Wharton. U.Penn Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford GSB bepress.com Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden’s capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush’s electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign -– like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror -– are the key factors in the forthcoming election.

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