Kerry Spot [ jim geraghty reporting ]
November 2, 2004.
CONSENSUS OF THE EARLY VOTING REPORTS [11/02 10:42 AM]
Here is one prediction I am willing to make based on the reports of long lines, big turnout, etc.: Bush will win a higher percentage of the vote in the deep-red states than he did in 2000.
Of course, this won't help him get to 270 electoral votes. But it sounds like it might help him a bit in the psychologically-useful popular vote. There are just too many reports of longer-than-ever-before lines in very red states. Maybe, like in the case of Oklahoma, it may be Senate races. Maybe, like in the case of Georgia, it may be referenda on issues like gay marriage. But either way, the turnout is in heavily GOP precincts, and the crowd on line is assessed by observers to be likely GOP voters. (They could be wrong, of course, but in some cases it's probably as obvious as a lapel button or a gun rack.)
The other question is, does this mean the new GOP get-out-the-vote system is working as expected? And how much will this new system help Bush where he needs it most? |
