Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
RASMUSSEN
Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004
Final Projection
Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.5%
Other 1.3%
RasmussenReports.com
Tuesday November 02, 2004--On Election Day, the final Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll projection shows President George W. Bush with 50.2% of the vote, Senator John Kerry with 48.5%, and other candidates with 1.3%.
We have been polling nightly on this Presidential contest since January 2 and it's hard to believe Election Day has finally arrived. We have prepared a Viewers Guide showing when each state's close their polls. We've also provided a month-by-month look at how we got to this point... and how close the race has been for eight months.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters say that national security issues are the most important issues in Election 2004. Twenty-six percent (26%) name economic issues as most important.
The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection currently shows Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and Kerry with 186.
In the South Dakota Senate race, Republican John Thune has a narrow lead over Democrat Tom Dashcle. While that race remains a Toss-Up, Republicans are gaining ground in the Rasmussen Reports
United States Senate
October 23, 2004
United States Senate
Republican 48
Democrat 44
Leans GOP 2
Toss-Up 6
NOTE: Republican, Democrat refer to the number of Senate seats safely held by each party.
RasmussenReports.com
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October 23, 2004--Republican prospects for retaining control of the United States Senate improved a bit over the past couple of weeks.
* In Oklahoma, Republican Tom Coburn has come from behind and now leads Democrat Brad Carson by five percentage points. We now consider this Senate seat in our "Leans Republican" category.
* In North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr has extended his slight lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles to four percentage points. While moving slightly in the Republican direction, the state is still in our Toss-Up category for the Senate.
* In Florida, Republican Mel Martinez has moved to within a point of Democrat Betty Castor.
Two factors appear to be benefiting the GOP. First, and most important, most of the contested Senate races are being fought in Republican friendly territory. Second, voters appear to be "coming home" on a partisan and ideological basis as Election Day approaches.
The best example of this is Oklahoma. The state will vote for President Bush over Senator Kerry by an overwhelming margin. However, in our earlier survey, only 62% of Bush voters planned to vote for the Republican Senate candidate Tom Coburn. Now, 75% of Bush voters say they will vote for Coburn.
Overall, it appears fairly certain that Democrats will pick up a Republican seat in Illinois and Republicans will return the favor in Georgia. With the exception of Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and South Dakota's Tom Daschle, all other incumbents are clear favorites in their bid for re-election. That gives Republicans a 48-44 advantage with 8 seats in play.
Two of those eight seats, (South Carolina and Oklahoma), now lean Republican. If the GOP takes those seats, they would have a 50-44 advantage and need to win just one of six Toss-Up states to retain majority party status in the Senate.
The six Toss-Up states are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, and South Dakota.
it awas the choice taking place inwill be decided in eight states this November--Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Alaska are the only states in which an incumbent Senator is in serious danger of losing.
Alaska
Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is in trouble because of the way she got the job. Her father was elected Governor after serving in the Senate for decades. As Governor, he got to appoint his own replacement and named his daughter. Even worse, he did this after pretending to consider others. Democratic challenger and former Governor Tony Knowles holds a statistically insignificant lead in our latest poll and other public polls. The question is whether this will be enough in a state that will produce a landslide for President Bush.
Colorado
This is a Senate seat the Republicans counted on winning when the year began. Incumbent Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell would have easily been re-elected, but stepped aside for health reasons. The Democrats have nominated a popular Attorney General Ken Salazar and the Republicans countered with one of the most famous business leaders in the nation--Pete Coors. Our polls have found the two candidates within the margin of error.
Florida
Democrat Betty Castor has a one-point edge in our latest survey, but Republican Mel Martinez is certainly not out of the race. This seat has been a Toss-Up ever since the Democratic incumbent Bob Graham announced he was not going to seek re-election.
Louisiana
Louisiana has one Republican and three Democrats in the race. There is no doubt that Republican David Vitter will emerge with the most votes on Election Day. The question is whether or not he will win more than 50% of the vote. If he does, he'll be a Senator. If not, he'll have to face the leading Democrat in a run-off.
North Carolina
Over the summer, Democrat Erskine Bowles had a double-digit lead over Republican Congressman Richard Burr. That lead has now evaporated and our latest poll shows Burr ahead, 49% to 45%. If Burr wins, he will replace Democratic Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards in the Senate.
Oklahoma
It is amazing that Oklahoma is even competitive. President Bush will win an overwhelming victory in the state, perhaps by 25-30 percentage points. Former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn has had his difficulties but the heavy GOP advantage in the state may be enough to carry him over the top.
South Carolina
South Carolina is leaning towards Republican Jim DeMint, but the race is much closer than expected. Our last two polls found Democrat Inez Tenenbaum within six points of DeMint. The reason? Tenenbaum has hit DeMint hard on his support for a national sales tax to replace the income tax.
South Dakota
This is the heavyweight match of the year. South Dakota is a heavily Republican state, but Daschle has a long track record of electoral success and the benefits of incumbency.
Thune lost a very close election, just a few hundred votes statewide, two years ago to Senator Tim Johnson.
Both political parties have a plausible story line as to why they should win this Senate election in 2004. Democrats want to believe that Daschle is a stronger candidate than Johnson was and that should make a difference.
Republicans want to believe that Johnson won two years ago partly because voters wanted to keep their state's Senator as the Majority Leader in Washington. Now that Republicans have control of the Senate, Daschle's clout is not what it was in 2002.
While the South Dakota race is a Toss-Up, we currently show challenger John Thune with a 3-point lead over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.
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